NASA Regional Applications Center At FIU:

INFORMATION

  1    12.4   -45.5    19/21 Z   30  1007  TD #7 formed
  2    12.6   -46.1    20/03 Z   30  1006  Tropical Depression
  3    13.5   -47.5    20/09 Z   30  1006  Tropical Depression
  4    14.3   -49.7    20/15 Z   40  1003  Tropical Storm Debby...upgraded
  5    15.2   -51.5    20/21 Z   45  1003  Tropical Storm
  5A   15.2   -52.1    21/00 Z   40  1003  Tropical Storm
  6    15.4   -52.9    21/03 Z   45  1001  Tropical Storm
  6A   15.6   -53.9    21/06 Z   45  1001  Tropical Storm
  7    15.6   -54.7    21/09 Z   45  1001  Tropical Storm
  7A   15.7   -55.3    21/12 Z   45  1001  Tropical Storm
  8    15.7   -57.3    21/15 Z   60  1008  Tropical Storm
  8A   16.0   -58.5    21/18 Z   60  1004  Tropical Storm
  9    16.3   -59.4    21/21 Z   60  1004  Tropical Storm
  9A   16.4   -60.2    22/00 Z   60  1006  Tropical Storm
  10   17.2   -61.0    22/03 Z   60   996  Tropical Storm
  10A  17.5   -61.7    22/06 Z   65   994  Hurricane Debby...upgraded
  11   17.7   -62.6    22/09 Z   65   994  Hurricane
  11A  18.2   -63.5    22/12 Z   65   997  Hurricane
  12   18.5   -64.4    22/15 Z   65   999  Hurricane
  12A  18.7   -65.2    22/17 Z   65   999  Hurricane
  12B  18.8   -65.6    22/19 Z   65   995  Hurricane
  13   19.1   -66.1    22/21 Z   65   995  Hurricane
  13A  19.2   -66.5    22/23 Z   65   998  Hurricane
  13B  19.2   -67.0    23/01 Z   65   998  Hurricane
  14   19.4   -67.5    23/03 Z   65   998  Hurricane
  15   19.7   -68.7    23/09 Z   65   995  Hurricane
  16   19.9   -70.0    23/15 Z   60  1005  Tropical Storm Debby...downgraded
  16A  20.0   -71.5    23/18 Z   50  1009  Tropical Storm
  17   20.0   -72.3    23/21 Z   45  1009  Tropical Storm
  17A  19.9   -73.5    24/00 Z   45  1009  Tropical Storm
  18   20.0   -74.0    24/03 Z   40  1008  Tropical Storm
  18A  19.8   -75.1    24/06 Z   35  1012  Tropical Storm
  19   19.6   -75.9    24/09 Z   35  1011  Tropical Storm
  19A  19.5   -77.0    24/12 Z   35  1011  Tropical Storm
  20                   24/15 Z             last...Debby now an open tropical wave
WIND is in knots
PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

SUMMARY

Tropical Storm Debby formed East of the lesser Antilles on August 20. At 11pm, a Hurricane
Watch became in effect for Saba, St Eustatius and St. Marteen and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
On August 22, Debby strengthened to a hurricane as it neared Antigua and Barbuda.
Hurricane Debby moved through the Northern Leeward Islands and crossed the Virgin Islands.
Debby passed North of Puerto Rico and began to weaken as it traveled along the north
coast of Dominican Republic. On August 24, a poorly defined Debby passed South of Eastern
Cuba and later deteriorated into an open tropical wave. Hurricane Debby reached Highest
Sustained Winds of 75 mph and lowest central Pressure of 1011 MB.

********************************************* DETAILS **************************************
08-21-2000
678 WTNT32 KNHC 211151
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 21 2000

...DEBBY MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS....
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SABA...ST EUSTATIUS...
ST MAARTEN...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTH OF DOMINICA. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT3 Archive

132
WTNT42 KNHC 210832
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000

THE CENTER OF DEBBY IS STILL HARD TO LOCATE. RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
NUDGE THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
AND NIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HINTS THAT IT MIGHT EVEN BE
SOUTH OF 15N. IN VIEW OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THIS PACKAGE CONTAINS A
LOT OF CONTINUITY AND EXTRAPOLATION. SOME RE-LOCATION MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/16. A STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DEBBY SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 72 HR...THE RIDGE
MAY WEAKEN AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
RE-INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...ANY MAJOR CHANGE THIS MIGHT CAUSE IN THE
TRACK OF DEBBY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ONLY
CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD NUDGING.

WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE CENTER IS. DEBBY HAS THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...AND THE SATELLITE WIND
SHEAR PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES
ABOUT 10 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS MODEL
AND SOME LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SHEAR
COULD CONTINUE...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DOWN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. NOTE THAT SOME
ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AFTER AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER ARRIVES AT 12Z.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.6N 54.7W 45 KTS
12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.1N 57.1W 50 KTS
24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.9N 60.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 22/1800Z 17.7N 63.6W 65 KTS
48HR VT 23/0600Z 18.5N 66.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 24/0600Z 20.5N 72.0W 80 KTS

*********************************************08-22-2000*************************************
853
WTNT32 KNHC 221443
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2000

...CENTER OF DEBBY CROSSING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING
ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...
AND ALSO FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND ITS SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT...EXUMAS...
LONG...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI NORTH OF
PORT AU PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...
AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST OF ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND NEAR TORTOLA IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH
...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL CROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DUE TO ITS LARGE SIZE...THE EFFECTS OF DEBBY COULD BE
FELT OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO THE TO OCCUR OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED
AREAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 64.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

377
WTNT42 KNHC 220844
TCDAT2
HURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000

DEBBY HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A 65 KT HURRICANE DURING THE NIGHT BASED
ON DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS OF HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS. AN
EARLIER SHARP DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY CAUSED BY A
SUPERCELL-TYPE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS
TIGHTLY-WOUND FEATURE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
ROSE FROM 991 MB TO 994 MB. SINCE THEN...THE GUADELOUPE RADAR HAS
SHOWN THE FORMATION OF A MORE CLASSIC BANDING PATTERN.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/18. THE REASON FOR THIS MIGHT BE THE
SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE NOW DEEPER VORTEX.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...AS LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...SOME DIFFERENCES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND AVN TAKE DEBBY ON A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY THE BAMS AND THE NHC90. THE UKMET CALLS FOR A
MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...TAKING DEBBY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BAHAMAS. IT IS SUPPORTED BY LBAR AND VICBAR. THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES BEST WITH THE GFDN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STAIR-STEP
TRACK...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION NOW FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION LATER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
BERMUDA...AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECAST OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 24-36 HR.

THE CONTINUED RAPID MOTION IS KEEPING ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR OVER
DEBBY...WHICH IS SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO EARLY IN THE PERIOD FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AND UNSTEADY. AS THE STORM
SLOWS...CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF DEBBY IS
NOT OVER HISPANIOLA OR IS NOT UNDER THE 200 MB NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HR. IF THESE
EXTREMES DO NOT OCCUR...DEBBY MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY 72 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 17.7N 62.6W 65 KTS
12HR VT 22/1800Z 18.5N 65.3W 70 KTS
24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.4N 68.7W 75 KTS
36HR VT 23/1800Z 20.4N 71.9W 75 KTS
48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.5W 80 KTS
72HR VT 25/0600Z 23.5N 78.5W 85 KTS

132
WTNT22 KNHC 221446
TCMAT2
HURRICANE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0700
1500Z TUE AUG 22 2000

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND ITS SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT...EXUMAS...
LONG...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI NORTH OF
PORT AU PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...
AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 64.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......120NE 20SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 25SE 25SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 100SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 64.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 70.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 73.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNED AREA.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 64.4W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

448
WTNT72 KNHC 221445
SPFAT2
HURRICANE DEBBY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI AUG 25 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.3N 70.3W 57 2 X X 59 MYEG 235N 758W X 3 21 1 25
21.5N 73.2W 1 39 X X 40 MYAK 241N 776W X X 13 8 21
22.5N 75.5W X 9 19 1 29 MYNN 251N 775W X X 8 11 19
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 14 15
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TIST 183N 650W 99 X X X 99 ST THOMAS VI 99 X X X 99
TJPS 180N 666W 58 X X X 58 SAN JUAN PR 81 X X X 81
MDSD 185N 697W 35 1 X X 36 PONCE PR 58 X X X 58
MDCB 176N 714W 2 3 X 1 6 MARATHON FL X X X 14 14
MTPP 186N 724W 3 16 X X 19 MIAMI FL X X X 15 15
MTCA 183N 738W X 7 2 1 10 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 13 13
MKJP 179N 768W X X 2 3 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 11 11
MKJS 185N 779W X X 2 4 6 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 9 9
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 7 7
MUGM 200N 751W X 13 8 1 22 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W X X 14 5 19 KEY WEST FL X X X 12 12
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 12 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 12 12
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 6 6 FT MYERS FL X X X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL X X X 9 9
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X X X 8 8
TJSJ 184N 661W 81 X X X 81 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 5 5
MDPP 198N 707W 48 4 X X 52 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W 33 15 X X 48 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W 1 35 X X 36 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
MYSM 241N 745W X 6 16 1 23

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART

*********************************************08-23-2000*************************************
839
WTNT31 KNHC 191436
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 19 2000

...CHRIS WEAKENS INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS
ARE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF
REDEVELOPMENT.

MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER
WATER MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST...15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH
IN SQUALLS.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.

WTNT3 Archive

609
WTNT41 KNHC 191442
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION AND THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW SQUALLS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
0948Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED CHRIS AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE IN
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE CENTER OF CHRIS HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FARTHER WEST BASED ON RECON AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING A SMALL SWIRL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. RECON WENT THROUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 1500 FT AND FOUND ONLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
BAND. THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER ON THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE REGENERATION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 18.6N 61.1W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 20/0000Z 19.6N 63.1W 20 KTS...DISSIPATED

WTNT4 Archive

672
WTNT21 KNHC 191443
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0600
1500Z SAT AUG 19 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 61.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 61.1W AT 19/1500Z...DISSIPATING
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 63.1W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 61.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

FORECASTER STEWART

NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.

WTNT2 Archive

097
WTNT71 KNHC 190849
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 19 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE AUG 22 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

19.7N 61.0W 55 X X X 55 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 3 3
20.8N 62.9W 23 10 X X 33 TJSJ 184N 661W X 2 7 1 10
22.0N 65.0W 1 17 4 1 23 MDPP 198N 707W X X 1 8 9
TFFR 163N 615W X 3 1 X 4 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 11 12
TAPA 171N 618W 2 7 1 X 10 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 10 10
TKPK 173N 627W 1 7 2 X 10 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 8 8
TNCM 181N 631W 2 12 1 1 16 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 5 5
TISX 177N 648W X 4 4 1 9 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2
TIST 183N 650W X 6 5 1 12 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
TJPS 180N 666W X 1 5 2 8 ST CROIX VI X 4 4 1 9
MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 5 6 ST THOMAS VI X 6 5 1 12
MDCB 176N 714W X X X 2 2 SAN JUAN PR X 2 7 1 10
MTPP 186N 724W X X X 4 4 PONCE PR X 1 5 2 8
MTCA 183N 738W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN

********************************************08-24-2000**************************************
156
WTNT32 KNHC 241205
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

...DEBBY BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...AND LAS TUNAS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...AND CIEGO DE AVILA. THIS WATCH COULD BE SHIFTED
WESTWARD LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WERE
DISCONTINUED AT 6 AM AST.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEBBY APPEARS TO BE FURTHER WEAKENING...AND DEBBY MAY BE
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

THERE IS STILL A RISK OF STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. HEAVY
RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
AND EASTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

WTNT3 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion

331
WTNT42 KNHC 240834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

DEBBY IS AT BEST A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND A VERY POORLY DEFINED 1011 MB CENTER SOUTH OF EASTERN
CUBA WITH 35-40 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. SPORADIC
CONVECTION IS FIRING IN THIS AREA...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL MIX THOSE
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH DEBBY SLIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 270/16. A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
STORM IS PUSHING IT WESTWARD...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR 24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. HOW FAR NORTH
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW WELL DEVELOPED DEBBY IS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVN ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE NEW FORECAST...
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF DEBBY MOVED FURTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS RATHER STRONGER THAN FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AND IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DEBBY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PERSIST FOR 24-36 HR...THUS FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY. DEBBY
COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT
TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE DEBBY IS. A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD GET DEBBY
TANGLED IN THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD AT LEAST
SLOW ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSIFY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 48 AND 72 HR TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.6N 75.9W 35 KTS
12HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 78.2W 30 KTS
24HR VT 25/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 30 KTS
36HR VT 25/1800Z 22.1N 82.5W 30 KTS
48HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 84.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 85.5W 40 KTS

NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available on the WWW.
We are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we provide links to text
files for these products (all track models or GFDL only), and another quickly updated
track map from Hurricane Alley. All guidance here should not be used in lieu of official
guidance from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only)
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active storms)
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins).
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory

133
WTNT22 KNHC 240901
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0700
0900Z THU AUG 24 2000

...CORRECT CUBA PROVINCES UNDER WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...AND CIEGO DE AVILA. THIS WATCH COULD BE SHIFTED
WESTWARD LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL
BE DISCONTINUED AT 6 AM AST.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.1N 82.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREA.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 75.9W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT2 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities

907
WTNT72 KNHC 240843
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.8N 80.7W 55 X X X 55 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4
22.1N 82.5W 9 27 X 1 37 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
23.5N 84.0W X 16 11 1 28 KEY WEST FL X 18 4 1 23
MKJP 179N 768W 3 X X X 3 MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 8 4 15
MKJS 185N 779W 39 X X X 39 FT MYERS FL X 1 7 6 14
MWCG 193N 814W 22 4 1 X 27 VENICE FL X X 6 7 13
MUGM 200N 751W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X X 2 8 10
MUCM 214N 779W 35 X X X 35 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W 41 2 X X 43 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5
MUSN 216N 826W 10 25 1 X 36 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MUHA 230N 824W 4 29 X 1 34 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6
MUAN 219N 850W X 8 12 1 21 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 4 4 8 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 3 3 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL X 13 4 2 19 GULF 29N 85W X X X 10 10
MIAMI FL X 2 4 4 10 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 10 10
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN