1    15.5   -48.6    02/03 Z   30  1007  TD #8 formed
  2    16.1   -49.8    02/09 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm Ernesto...upgraded
  3    17.4   -51.6    02/15 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm
  4    17.8   -52.7    02/21 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm
  5    18.4   -53.8    03/03 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm
  6    18.9   -55.5    03/09 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm
  7    19.6   -57.2    03/15 Z   35  1005  Tropical Storm
  8    20.0   -59.0    03/21 Z   30  1009  Tropical Depression...dissipating...last

WIND is in knots 
PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

summary not available...
********************************************* DETAILS **************************************
517 
 WTNT33 KNHC 032035
 TCPAT3
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   8
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 5 PM AST SUN SEP 03 2000
 
 ...ERNESTO DETERIORATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERNESTO NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
 CIRCULATION.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  59.0
 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
 LEEWARD ISLANDS.
  
 ERNESTOS REMNANT...A TROPICAL WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
 HIGHER GUSTS.  THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
 WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...DISSIPATING NEAR 20.0 N... 59.0 W.
 
 MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
  
 THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER ON ERNESTO...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
WTNT3 Archive

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion 


955 
 WTNT43 KNHC 032033
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000
  
 PERSISTENT SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON ERNESTO AND THE CLOUD PATTERN
 HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED TODAY.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE THAT A
 CLOSED CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW A STRONG
 TROPICAL WAVE.  THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT ERNESTO IS
 DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
 GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS SHIPS AND THE GFDL HAVE INSISTED ON THE
 STRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO.  THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY ON
 SEVERAL TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR.  APPARENTLY THEY ARE NOT AS
 CAPABLE TO PREDICT WEAKENING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT AS THEY ARE TO PREDICT STRENGTHENING IN A FAVORABLE ONE.
  
 THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERNESTO UNLESS REGENERATION
 OCCURS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     03/2100Z 20.0N  59.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 
NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available on the WWW. We
are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we provide links to text files for 
these products (all track models or GFDL only), and another quickly updated track map from 
Hurricane Alley. All guidance here should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the 
National Hurricane Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only) 
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active storms) 
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins). 
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive


 
Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory 


705 
 WTNT23 KNHC 032036
 TCMAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0800
 2100Z SUN SEP 03 2000
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  59.0W AT 03/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  90 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT...DISSIPATING.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  59.0W AT 03/2100Z
 AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  58.0W
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/0300Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  59.0W
  
 THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER ON ERNESTO...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
WTNT2 Archive 

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities 


073 
 WTNT73 KNHC 031437
 SPFAT3
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM AST SUN SEP 03 2000
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.2 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST WED SEP  6 2000
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 21.8N  61.4W      52  X  X  X 52   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  1  1  2
 23.0N  63.0W      27  5  1  X 33   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  2  2
 24.5N  64.5W       2 18  3  1 24   BERMUDA            X  X  X  8  8
 TNCM 181N 631W     X  1  1  X  2   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  1  1  2
 TIST 183N 650W     X  X  1  1  2   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  1  1  2
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
 C FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
 D FROM  8AM TUE TO  8AM WED
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
 FORECASTER PASCH