Hurricane Keith
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  16.10  -82.90 09/28/20Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  16.20  -83.20 09/29/02Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3  16.20  -83.20 09/29/09Z   35  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   4  17.20  -84.30 09/29/14Z   35  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   5  17.60  -85.20 09/29/20Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM
  5A  17.70  -85.30 09/29/23Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM
   6  17.90  -85.30 09/30/02Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM
  6A  17.80  -85.50 09/30/06Z   60   995 TROPICAL STORM
   7  18.10  -86.30 09/30/08Z   70   985 TROPICAL STORM
  7A  18.20  -86.40 09/30/11Z   70   985 TROPICAL STORM
   8  18.00  -86.60 09/30/14Z   80   984 HURRICANE-1
  8A  18.00  -86.60 09/30/17Z   80   982 HURRICANE-1
   9  18.00  -86.80 09/30/20Z  100   970 HURRICANE-1
  9A  18.00  -87.00 09/30/23Z  105   966 HURRICANE-1
  10  18.10  -87.10 10/01/02Z  115   960 HURRICANE-1
 10A  18.10  -87.40 10/01/05Z  120   955 HURRICANE-1
  11  18.00  -87.30 10/01/08Z  135   942 HURRICANE-1
 11A  18.20  -87.50 10/01/11Z  135   942 HURRICANE-1
  12  18.10  -87.60 10/01/15Z  135   942 HURRICANE-1
 12A  17.90  -87.70 10/01/17Z  135   942 HURRICANE-1
  13  17.90  -87.90 10/01/20Z  125   951 HURRICANE-1
 13A  17.80  -87.80 10/01/23Z  125   958 HURRICANE-1
  14  17.90  -87.90 10/02/02Z  115   958 HURRICANE-1
 14A  17.90  -87.90 10/02/04Z  115   958 HURRICANE-1
 14B  17.80  -87.90 10/02/05Z  115   958 HURRICANE-1
  15  17.60  -87.80 10/02/08Z  100   975 HURRICANE-1
 15A  17.70  -87.80 10/02/11Z   90   979 HURRICANE-1
  16  17.70  -87.80 10/02/14Z   80   979 HURRICANE-1
 16A  17.70  -87.90 10/02/17Z   75   979 HURRICANE-1
  17  17.70  -88.00 10/02/20Z   75   987 HURRICANE-1
 17A  17.90  -88.00 10/02/23Z   75   988 HURRICANE-1
  18  18.00  -88.10 10/03/02Z   70   988 TROPICAL STORM
 18A  18.10  -88.10 10/03/05Z   65   989 TROPICAL STORM
  19  18.30  -88.70 10/03/08Z   55   993 TROPICAL STORM
 19A  18.30  -88.90 10/03/11Z   45   993 TROPICAL STORM
  20  18.30  -89.40 10/03/14Z   35   995 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  21  18.60  -89.90 10/03/20Z   30   998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  22  19.10  -90.50 10/04/02Z   30  1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  23  19.90  -92.10 10/04/08Z   35  1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  24  20.20  -93.50 10/04/14Z   35   999 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24A  20.30  -93.50 10/04/17Z   45   996 TROPICAL STORM
  25  20.40  -94.10 10/04/20Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM
 25A  20.70  -94.80 10/04/23Z   65   988 TROPICAL STORM
  26  20.90  -95.30 10/05/02Z   70   988 TROPICAL STORM
 26A  21.20  -95.70 10/05/05Z   70   988 TROPICAL STORM
  27  21.40  -96.70 10/05/08Z   75   987 HURRICANE-1
 27A  21.80  -97.00 10/05/11Z   85   984 HURRICANE-1
  28  22.30  -97.50 10/05/14Z   90   984 HURRICANE-1
 28A  22.60  -97.90 10/05/17Z   90   984 HURRICANE-1
  29  22.90  -98.20 10/05/20Z   75   988 HURRICANE-1
 29A  23.20  -99.00 10/05/23Z   95   991 TROPICAL STORM
  30  23.50  -99.40 10/06/02Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM
 30A  23.50 -100.00 10/06/05Z   35  1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  31  23.50 -100.50 10/06/08Z   35  1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WIND is in knots 
PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

summary not available...
 
********************************************** DETAILS *************************************
189 
WTNT35 KNHC 292040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

...TROPICAL STORM KEITH...THE ELEVENTH OF THE SEASON...FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE EAST OF YUCATAN FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO
CATOCHE.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.2
WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
KEITH HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/HR...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  KEITH COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.    

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 85.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

********************************************** 10-02-00 ************************************
331 
 WTNT35 KNHC 021456
 TCPAT5
 BULLETIN
 HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  16
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 10 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000
  
 ...KEITH STILL STATIONARY AND WEAKENING SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF
 BELIZE...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
 RIVER TOWN.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
 FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
  
 ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
 MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH
 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.8 WEST
 OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
  
 KEITH REMAINS STATIONARY.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12
 TO 24 HOURS.  A SLOW NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO
 BEGIN LATE TODAY OR TOMORROW.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...AND KEITH WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
 TODAY.
  
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
  
 THE MOST RECENT CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
 IS  979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
  
 STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6-8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
 ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
 PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
 THE HURRICANE.
  
 RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE
 BAY OF CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY.
 THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY
 WATER CAN RAPIDLY RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING
 AREAS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BAY
 SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
  
 HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
 FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
 HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
 VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 20 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 87.8 W.  MOVEMENT
 STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
 PRESSURE... 979 MB.
  
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
 PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
  
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
 HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
 COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  

WTNT3 Archive

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion 


541 
 WTNT45 KNHC 021443
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
  
 KEITH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN.  LAST RECON REPORTED THE
 CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 979 MB AND THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WIND WAS 68 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT HAM RADIO REPORTS OF 80 MPH
 SO THE WINDS WILL BE HELD A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE
 AIRCRAFT.  KEITH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
 REMAINS PARTIALLY OVER WATER.  OBVIOUSLY THE DECAY WILL BE MUCH
 FASTER SHOULD KEITH MOVE INLAND.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY.  THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD
 DRIFT HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
 ATLANTIC HAS NOT BUILT WEST AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS AN AREA
 OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
 NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MINIMAL STEERING
 AROUND THE HURRICANE.  THE MORNING INITIALIZATION OF THE AVN PLACES
 KEITH ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE HURRICANE
 AND THE DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE ETA INITIALIZES
 BOTH SYSTEMS AND ROTATES THE TWO AROUND EACH OTHER.  THE UKMET...ON
 THE OTHER HAND...DOES NOT SHOW THE SECOND SYSTEM AND TAKES KEITH TO
 THE NORTHWEST.  GIVEN THIS SPREAD...IT IS HARD TO HAVE MUCH
 CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
 AND HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOTION FORECAST IS THE BEST BET. 
 ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND MAY WELL NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH.
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     02/1500Z 17.7N  87.8W    70 KTS
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.7N  87.8W    60 KTS
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.3N  88.1W    50 KTS
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W    30 KTS
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N  91.0W    60 KTS
   

NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available on the WWW. We
are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we provide links to text files for
these products (all track models or GFDL only), and another quickly updated track map from 
Hurricane Alley. All guidance here should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the 
National Hurricane Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only) 
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active storms) 
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins). 
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive

 
Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory 


369 
 WTNT25 KNHC 021445
 TCMAT5
 HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
 1500Z MON OCT 02 2000
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
 RIVER TOWN.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
 FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
  
 ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
 MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W AT 02/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
 64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
 50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT....... 60NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W AT 02/1500Z
 AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N  87.8W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N  88.1W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  87.8W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N  91.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  

WTNT2 Archive 

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities 


280 
 WTNT75 KNHC 021459
 SPFAT5
 HURRICANE KEITH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 10 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.8 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT THU OCT  5 2000
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 18.3N  88.1W      99  X  X  X 99   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  7  7
 19.5N  88.5W      26  3  X  X 29   BURAS LA           X  X  1  8  9
 21.5N  89.0W       2 17  3  1 23   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  8  8
 MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  3  4  7   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  8  8
 MMCZ 205N 869W     9  8  2  1 20   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  6  6
 MZBZ 175N 883W    99  X  X  X 99   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  6  6
 MGPB 157N 886W     7  4  1  1 13   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  5  5
 MHNJ 165N 859W    10  2  1  1 14   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  4  4
 MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  2  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  3  3
 MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  X  2  2   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  3  3
 MMTX 210N 974W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  3  3
 MMVR 192N 961W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  6  6
 MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  1  5  6   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  2  9 11
 MMMD 210N 897W     2 14  4  2 22   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  2  9 11
 ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1  8  9
 APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  6  6
 PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  3  3   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  5  5
 PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  5  5   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  5  5
 MOBILE AL          X  X  X  6  6
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM TUE
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  7AM TUE TO  7PM TUE
 C FROM  7PM TUE TO  7AM WED
 D FROM  7AM WED TO  7AM THU
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM THU
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
********************************************** 10-03-00 ************************************
378 
 WTNT35 KNHC 031152
 TCPAT5
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 7 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
 ...KEITH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO MONKEY
 RIVER TOWN BELIZE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
 THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
  
 SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.9 WEST
 OR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...
 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
  
 KEITH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
 AND A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  45 MPH... 70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
 KEITH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
  
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES
 ...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
  
 MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.  
  
 HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS COULD
 PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RECENT HAM
 RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
 TO THE WEST OF BELIZE CITY SINCE SATURDAY.  ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING
 RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED
 10 TO 15 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 88.9 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS... 45 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
  
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
 PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
  
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 10 AM CDT.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
********************************************** 10-04-00 ************************************ 
978 
WTNT35 KNHC 040842
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2000

...KEITH BACK OVER WATER...APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN...
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR ESTIMATED 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...160 KM...WEST OF THE CITY OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
TODAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AND COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED BUT LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 92.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

********************************************** 10-05-00 ************************************
555 
WTNT35 KNHC 050837
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 05 2000

...KEITH REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM
TUXPAN TO MATAMOROS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT SOUTH
OF TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  96.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
 
KEITH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK KEITH
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF KEITH.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 96.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
********************************************** 10-06-00 ************************************
376 
WTNT35 KNHC 060820
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT FRI OCT 06 2000

...KEITH WEAKENING RAPIDLY... 

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MEXICAN COAST WAS DISCONTINUED AT
1 AM CDT...0600Z.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 90 MILES...180 KM...WEST OF CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  KEITH IF FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
KEITH. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N...100.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.