ADV   TIME      LAT    LON    WIND  PRES        STATUS
___ _________  _____  _____  _____  ____  ___________________
 1  10/19/21Z  28.6N  59.4W  35MPH  1008  T.D. 18
 2  10/20/03Z  29.0N  58.4W  35MPH  1010  Tropical depression
 3  10/20/09Z  29.8N  57.6W  35MPH  1008  Tropical depression
 4  10/20/15Z  30.8N  57.0W  40MPH  1004  T.S. Nadine
 5  10/20/21Z  31.9N  56.4W  45MPH  1002  Tropical storm
 6  10/21/03Z  33.0N  54.6W  60MPH   997  Tropical storm
 7  10/21/09Z  34.0N  52.7W  60MPH   997  Tropical storm
 8  10/21/15Z  35.4N  51.1W  60MPH   997  Tropical storm
 9  10/21/21Z  35.3N  50.8W  50MPH  1000  Tropical storm
10  10/22/03Z  36.3N  49.9W  50MPH  1000  Tropical storm
Last advisory - Becoming extratropical

PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

Tropical Depression 18 formed southeast of Bermuda on Oct. 19. It threatened no land, and
did not become a hurricane during its brief life at sea. 

T.D. 18 was very close to tropical storm intensity the day the National Hurricane Center
began issuing advisories. As it churned north at about 15 mph, it was named Tropical Storm
Nadine the next day as it passed nearly 500 miles east of Bermuda. 

Nadine was embedded in the southwest flow ahead of a U.S. East Coast trough that "just ate
Michael," as hurricane forecaster Jim Franklin put it. 

Tropical storm Nadine reached a peak of intensity of 60 mph late on Oct. 20 while heading
northeast at about 18 mph. It was all downhill from there. 

Strong upper-air winds in the trough drove Nadine's thunderstorms away from its center
leaving it exposed. At the same time, a cold front swept in with dry air and devoured the
tropical storm's low-level center. By Oct. 21 the Center could not find any thunderstorms
closer than 100 miles to Nadine's rapidly changing circulation center. 

Nadine was declared extratropical late on Oct. 21 as it raced into history in the chilly
North Atlantic. 

********************************************** DETAILS *************************************
298 
 WTNT33 KNHC 220225
 TCPAT3
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 PM AST SAT OCT 21 2000
  
 ...NADINE WEAKENING AND BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
 SYSTEM...NO THREAT TO LAND...
 
 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE
 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.9 WEST
 OR ABOUT 750 MILES...1205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
 NEWFOUNDLAND.
  
 NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
 AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
 NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
 24 HOURS AS NADINE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND BECOMES AN
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
  
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
 ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
   
 REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.3 N... 49.9 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS... 50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
  
 THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM NADINE.  ADDITIONAL 
 AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE
 PREDICTION CENTER HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AFOS/AWIPS HEADER
 NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  

WTNT3 Archive

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion 


501 
 WTNT43 KNHC 220237
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000
 
 ...CORRECTED TO ADD FINAL ADVISORY NOTICE...
  
 DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT... 
 THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  NADINE IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN
 EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NEARBY
 COLD FRONT.  IN FACT...THE INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTION IS
 STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO AN OCCLUDED MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
 HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON A 21/2226Z
 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATING 40 TO 45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 50
 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
 
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
 TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  SATELLITE POSITION
 ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SO THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
 LATEST MARINE PREDICTION CENTER...MPC...FORECAST TRACK.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND 
 UKMET MODELS...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL.
  
 NADINE IS ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON
 THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED DIFFLUENT TROUGH.
 DUE TO THE SHEAR...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND COOL OCEAN WATER...
 REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM
 CENTER IS UNLIKELY.  NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE THE RAPID TRANSITION TO
 AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND... ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE
 BAROCLINIC-TYPE INTENSIFICATION...RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
 THIS TIME.  THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
 ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.
 
 THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON NADINE.  ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE
 INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN FOUND IN THE MPC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
 UNDER AFOS/AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     22/0300Z 36.3N  49.9W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 38.1N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 41.7N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 47.5N  37.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 55.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 

NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available on the WWW. We
are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we provide links to text files for
these products (all track models or GFDL only), and another quickly updated track map from 
Hurricane Alley. All guidance here should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the
National Hurricane Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only) 
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active storms) 
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins). 
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive


Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory 


232 
 WTNT23 KNHC 220222
 TCMAT3
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1800
 0300Z SUN OCT 22 2000
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  49.9W AT 22/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM ...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT 15 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
 34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 225SW 275NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  49.9W AT 22/0300Z
 AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N  50.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.1N  48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N  44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 90NE 175SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 47.5N  37.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...100NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N  49.9W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 55.0N  29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM NADINE.  ADDITIONAL 
 AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE
 PREDICITON CENTER HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AFOS/AWIPS HEADER
 NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT2 Archive 

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities 


500 
 WTNT73 KNHC 220226
 SPFAT3
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 PM AST SAT OCT 21 2000
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.9 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST TUE OCT 24 2000
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 41.7N  44.0W      16  9  X  X 25   55.0N  29.0W       X  X  7  X  7
 47.5N  37.1W       X 10  5  X 15   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  4  1  X  5
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
 C FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
 D FROM  8PM MON TO  8PM TUE
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
 THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON NADINE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
 AND RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART

********************************************* 10-20-2000 ***********************************
688 
WTNT73 KNHC 210229
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM NADINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI OCT 20 2000
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  54.6 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST MON OCT 23 2000
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
37.7N  49.3W      17  4  X  X 21   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  2  X  2
40.6N  45.9W       1 13  3  1 18   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  5  1  6
45.0N  41.5W       X  1 10  2 13   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  7  3 10
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART