INFORMATION
ADV LAT LON DATE/TIME WIND PR STATUS 1 14.6 -46.2 09/07/21 Z 25 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION #8 formed 2 15.2 -47.5 09/08/03 Z 30 1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 15.6 -49.1 09/08/09 Z 35 1005 TROPICAL STORM FLOYD...reclassified 4 15.8 -50.0 09/08/15 Z 40 1003 TROPICAL STORM 5 16.6 -51.7 09/08/21 Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM 6 16.7 -53.6 09/09/03 Z 50 1000 TROPICAL STORM 7 17.3 -54.6 09/09/09 Z 50 1003 TROPICAL STORM 8 17.2 -55.5 09/09/15 Z 50 1003 TROPICAL STORM 9 18.2 -56.9 09/09/21 Z 60 996 TROPICAL STORM 9A 18.2 -57.2 09/10/00 Z 60 996 TROPICAL STORM 10 18.3 -57.7 09/10/03 Z 60 995 TROPICAL STORM 10A 18.4 -58.4 09/10/06 Z 60 995 TROPICAL STORM 11 18.9 -58.7 09/10/09 Z 60 989 TROPICAL STORM 11A 19.1 -58.9 09/10/12 Z 70 989 HURRICANE...reclassified 12 19.3 -59.2 09/10/15 Z 70 989 HURRICANE 12A 19.9 -59.7 09/10/18 Z 70 989 HURRICANE 13 20.5 -60.0 09/10/21 Z 70 975 HURRICANE 13A 20.8 -60.4 09/11/00 Z 75 971 HURRICANE 14 21.1 -60.8 09/11/03 Z 80 971 HURRICANE 15 21.7 -61.6 09/11/09 Z 90 963 HURRICANE 16 22.2 -62.4 09/11/15 Z 95 962 HURRICANE 17 22.7 -63.5 09/11/21 Z 95 966 HURRICANE 18 22.7 -64.5 09/12/03 Z 95 967 HURRICANE 19 22.8 -65.9 09/12/09 Z 95 960 HURRICANE 19A 22.9 -66.2 09/12/12 Z 100 955 HURRICANE 20 23.3 -66.6 09/12/15 Z 105 955 HURRICANE 20A 23.2 -67.5 09/12/18 Z 105 955 HURRICANE 21 23.4 -68.2 09/12/21 Z 110 940 HURRICANE 21A 23.5 -68.7 09/13/00 Z 125 932 HURRICANE 22 23.6 -69.3 09/13/03 Z 125 931 HURRICANE 22A 23.6 -70.0 09/13/06 Z 130 923 HURRICANE 23 23.7 -70.6 09/13/09 Z 135 922 HURRICANE 23A 23.9 -71.4 09/13/12 Z 135 921 HURRICANE 24 24.1 -72.1 09/13/15 Z 135 921 HURRICANE 24A 24.2 -73.0 09/13/18 Z 135 926 HURRICANE 25 24.2 -73.7 09/13/21 Z 135 923 HURRICANE 25A 24.4 -74.1 09/14/00 Z 135 924 HURRICANE 26 24.5 -74.7 09/14/03 Z 135 924 HURRICANE 26A 24.9 -75.3 09/14/06 Z 135 928 HURRICANE 27 25.1 -75.9 09/14/09 Z 135 927 HURRICANE 27A 25.4 -76.2 09/14/12 Z 130 929 HURRICANE 28 25.7 -76.8 09/14/15 Z 125 932 HURRICANE 28A 26.0 -77.0 09/14/18 Z 120 933 HURRICANE 29 26.5 -77.4 09/14/21 Z 120 929 HURRICANE 29A 27.1 -77.6 09/15/00 Z 120 934 HURRICANE 30 27.7 -77.9 09/15/03 Z 120 933 HURRICANE 30A 27.2 -78.5 09/15/06 Z 125 935 HURRICANE 31 28.8 -78.8 09/15/09 Z 120 938 HURRICANE 31A 29.3 -79.8 09/15/12 Z 115 941 HURRICANE 32 29.9 -79.0 09/15/15 Z 110 943 HURRICANE 32A 30.3 -79.1 09/15/17 Z 110 946 HURRICANE 32B 30.8 -79.1 09/15/19 Z 105 947 HURRICANE 33 31.3 -79.0 09/15/21 Z 100 949 HURRICANE 33A 32.1 -78.7 09/15/23 Z 100 949 HURRICANE 33B 32.4 -78.6 09/16/01 Z 100 950 HURRICANE 34 32.9 -78.3 09/16/03 Z 100 951 HURRICANE 34A 33.3 -78.1 09/16/05 Z 95 952 HURRICANE 34B 34.0 -77.9 09/16/07 Z 95 956 HURRICANE...on coast 35 34.5 -77.6 09/16/09 Z 90 956 HURRICANE...inland 35A 35.2 -77.1 09/16/11 Z 85 960 HURRICANE...inland 35B 36.0 -76.6 09/16/13 Z 80 962 HURRICANE...inland 36 36.8 -76.0 09/16/15 Z 70 967 HURRICANE...inland 36A 37.8 -75.2 09/16/18 Z 65 974 HURRICANE 37 09/16/21 Z WIND is in knots PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)
SUMMARY
summary not available...
************************************************ 09-07-99 ********************************
no data available...
************************************************ 09-08-99 ********************************
no data available...
************************************************ 09-09-99 ********************************
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 1999
...FLOYD CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOYD
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 450 MILES...725 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING AND FLOYD WILL LIKELY BECOME
A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N... 54.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
PASCH
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
758
WTNT43 KNHC 090844
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 1999
ON THEIR FIRST MISSION INTO FLOYD...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
FOUND THAT THE STORM IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT THAT THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. ON TWO DROPS INTO
THE EYE...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 1002 AND 1003 MB. SURFACE
WIND MEASUREMENTS AT THE DROPWINSONDE SPLASH POINTS SUGGEST THAT
NEITHER DROP WAS QUITE AT THE SURFACE CENTER POSITION HOWEVER.
ALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT AS STRONG A STORM AS
WE THOUGHT...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW EVIDENT. RECENT GOES-8 IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE
SHOW THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE
CENTER... SUGGESTING THAT THE INNER CORE MAY BE GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN STRENGTHENING AT A MORE RAPID
RATE MAY COMMENCE SOON.
INITIAL MOTION...285/13 IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT
THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...THUS THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS AS WELL...AND
KEEPS FLOYD TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IF THE
STORM DOES NOT TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A PORTION OF FLOYDS
LARGE CIRCULATION COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERNMOST OF THESE ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK
OF FLOYD. IF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES LIFTS OUT LATER
THIS WEEKEND...THEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY NOT IMMEDIATELY
RECURVE...OR EVEN TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF THIS IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND
AVN MODELS. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
SPECULATION.
PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 17.3N 54.6W 50 KTS
12HR VT 09/1800Z 17.9N 56.4W 60 KTS
24HR VT 10/0600Z 19.1N 58.6W 70 KTS
36HR VT 10/1800Z 20.5N 60.5W 80 KTS
48HR VT 11/0600Z 21.5N 62.0W 90 KTS
72HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 95 KTS
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
678
WTNT23 KNHC 090832
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0899
0900Z THU SEP 09 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 54.6W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 54.6W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 53.9W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 56.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 54.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
PASCH
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
667
WTNT73 KNHC 090842
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN SEP 12 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.1N 58.6W 41 X X X 41 TIST 183N 650W X 1 6 5 12
20.5N 60.5W 9 18 1 X 28 TJPS 180N 666W X X 2 6 8
21.5N 62.0W X 17 5 1 23 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W X X 1 1 2 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 3 7 10
TFFF 146N 610W X 1 2 1 4 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W X 3 2 1 6 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W 1 6 3 1 11 ST CROIX VI X 1 5 5 11
TAPA 171N 618W 1 9 3 2 15 ST THOMAS VI X 1 6 5 12
TKPK 173N 627W X 7 4 3 14 SAN JUAN PR X X 3 7 10
TNCM 181N 631W X 7 6 3 16 PONCE PR X X 2 6 8
TISX 177N 648W X 1 5 5 11
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 09-10-99 ********************************
047
WTNT33 KNHC 101443
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOYD ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 10 1999
...HURRICANE FLOYD PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...AND DUTCH SAINT MAARTEN...
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOYD.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOYD
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRPLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N... 59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
386
WTNT43 KNHC 101432
TCDAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OF 88 KT THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND
ESTIMATE OF 70 KT AND FLOYD IS NOW A HURRICANE. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA
HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION. THEIR ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 70 KT.
FLOYD CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CONSOLIDATING ITS INNER
CORE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT QUITE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION OR MID-LEVEL ROTATION. THE MOST
RECENT MSLP WAS 989 MB...UP A BIT FROM EARLIER. THIS PROBABLY
REFLECTS THE POOR INNER ORGANIZATION RATHER THAN A WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...IF A BIT RESTRICTED ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS FLOYD
TO CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THREE DAYS. THE AVN DEVELOPS
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLOYD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LONGER TERM ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE
NOAA JET LAST NIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FLOYD AND THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NCEP CLOBAL MODEL AT
06Z CONTINUES TO ANALYZE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING RING OF VORTICITY
SURROUNDING FLOYD...WHICH APPEARS TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD TRACK
DEFLECTION IN THE MODEL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS IS
DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...LEAVING A CUTOFF LOW IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY AT 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND LBAR.
FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 19.3N 59.2W 70 KTS
12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.9N 60.5W 80 KTS
24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.8N 62.0W 85 KTS
36HR VT 12/0000Z 21.9N 63.9W 90 KTS
48HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 66.0W 95 KTS
72HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 69.5W 105 KTS
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
041
WTNT23 KNHC 101434
TCMAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0899
1500Z FRI SEP 10 1999
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...AND DUTCH SAINT MAARTEN...
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOYD.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 59.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 100SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 59.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 58.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 63.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 59.2W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
487
WTNT73 KNHC 101445
SPFAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 10 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON SEP 13 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.8N 62.0W 57 X X 1 58 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2
21.9N 63.9W 21 10 X X 31 TJSJ 184N 661W X 2 4 1 7
23.0N 66.0W 1 16 5 2 24 MDPP 198N 707W X X 1 7 8
TAPA 171N 618W X 2 X X 2 MBJT 215N 712W X X 2 9 11
TKPK 173N 627W X 2 1 X 3 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 9 9
TNCM 181N 631W 2 5 1 1 9 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 7 7
TISX 177N 648W X 2 2 1 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 4 4
TIST 183N 650W X 4 3 1 8 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
TJPS 180N 666W X 1 2 2 5 ST CROIX VI X 2 2 1 5
MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 4 5 ST THOMAS VI X 4 3 1 8
MDCB 176N 714W X X X 2 2 SAN JUAN PR X 2 4 1 7
MTPP 186N 724W X X X 3 3 PONCE PR X 1 2 2 5
MTCA 183N 738W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 09-11-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-12-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-13-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-14-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-15-99 ********************************
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
...FRINGES OF HURRICANE CONTINUE TO IMPACT COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA...BUT FLOYD IS HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
TITUSVILLE.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF TITUSVILLE SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOYD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY U.S. AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTHWARD TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
977
WTNT43 KNHC 151451
TCDAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/12. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
CLOSELY CLUSTERED SHOWING A CONTINUED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA A LITTLE OVER 12 HOURS. A FEW OF THE
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SHOWING THE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. IN EITHER CASE...THE LARGE RADIUS OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO RISE AND THE WIND SPEED IS
DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS AT 15Z...CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFFIR/SIMPSON
SCALE. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE LANDFALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COAST.
LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 29.9N 79.0W 110 KTS
12HR VT 16/0000Z 32.2N 79.6W 110 KTS
24HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 78.7W 75 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 38.7N 76.4W 55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 41.7N 73.3W 45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 63.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
673
WTNT23 KNHC 151453
TCMAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0899
1500Z WED SEP 15 1999
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
TITUSVILLE.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF TITUSVILLE SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT
64 KT.......120NE 70SE 60SW 60NW
50 KT.......140NE 135SE 90SW 130NW
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW
12 FT SEAS..600NE 250SE 200SW 300NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 78.9W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.2N 79.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
64 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 60NW
50 KT...140NE 135SE 90SW 130NW
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT...120NE 70SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT...140NE 135SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT...200NE 180SE 75SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.7N 76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT...140NE 135SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT...200NE 180SE 75SW 75NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 79.0W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.7N 73.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 49.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
174
WTNT73 KNHC 151509
SPFAT3
HURRICANE FLOYD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
35.0N 78.7W 28 2 X X 30 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 8 5 14
38.7N 76.4W X 14 3 1 18 NANTUCKET MA X X 7 6 13
41.7N 73.3W X 2 10 3 15 HYANNIS MA X X 7 7 14
COCOA BEACH FL 3 X X X 3 BOSTON MA X X 7 7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL 12 X X X 12 PORTLAND ME X X 5 9 14
JACKSONVILLE FL 12 1 X X 13 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 11 13
SAVANNAH GA 43 X X X 43 EASTPORT ME X X 1 12 13
CHARLESTON SC 57 X X X 57 ST JOHN NB X X 1 11 12
MYRTLE BEACH SC 43 X X X 43 MONCTON NB X X X 11 11
WILMINGTON NC 29 1 X X 30 YARMOUTH NS X X 1 11 12
MOREHEAD CITY NC 15 7 X X 22 HALIFAX NS X X X 10 10
CAPE HATTERAS NC 4 12 1 X 17 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 6 6
NORFOLK VA 1 16 1 1 19 SYDNEY NS X X X 7 7
OCEAN CITY MD X 12 4 X 16 EDDY POINT NS X X X 8 8
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 8 7 1 16 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 6 6
NEW YORK CITY NY X 4 9 2 15 BURGEO NFLD X X X 4 4
MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 9 4 14 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 09-16-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-17-99 ********************************
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999
...FLOYD TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SANDY HOOK
NEW JERSEY TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS ARE DISCONTINUED.
ALL INTERESTS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MERRIMACK RIVER SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOYD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORTLAND MAINE.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS COASTAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES. HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY TO MERRIMACK MASSACHUSETTS. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...43.5 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY
THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
305
WTNT43 KNHC 170906
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999
THE CENTER OF FLOYD IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING EITHER
RADAR DATA OR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
FLOYD HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 035/23 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS AN
INITIAL NORTHEAST MOTION FOLLOWED BY A EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AFTER
12 HRS...WITH AN EASTWARD BEND BY 36 HRS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN 45N-50N. THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT A TAD SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA SHOWS THAT FLOYD CONTINUES
ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME
ELONGATED. FLOYD IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE NWS OFFICES IN UPTON NY AND TAUNTON MA
...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
MERRIMACK MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLOYD. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
GUINEY
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 43.5N 70.8W 50 KTS
12HR VT 17/1800Z 46.0N 67.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 18/0600Z 48.5N 61.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 18/1800Z 50.0N 51.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0600Z 50.0N 43.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z 49.0N 31.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
007
WTNT23 KNHC 170236
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0899
0300Z FRI SEP 17 1999
AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SANDY HOOK
TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. INTERESTS SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 30 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 150SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS..500NE 300SE 0SW 0NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 45.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 48.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 25NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 72.2W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 50.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
PASCH
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
790
WTNT73 KNHC 170235
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
48.0N 60.0W 19 5 X X 24 ST JOHN NB 40 X X X 40
49.5N 52.0W X 12 2 X 14 MONCTON NB 36 X X X 36
50.0N 44.0W X 1 7 3 11 YARMOUTH NS 34 X X X 34
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 46 X X X 46 HALIFAX NS 26 X X X 26
NEW YORK CITY NY 99 X X X 99 SABLE ISLAND NS 9 2 X X 11
MONTAUK POINT NY 99 X X X 99 SYDNEY NS 21 2 1 X 24
PROVIDENCE RI 99 X X X 99 EDDY POINT NS 23 1 X X 24
NANTUCKET MA 42 X X X 42 PTX BASQUES NFLD 17 6 X X 23
HYANNIS MA 59 X X X 59 BURGEO NFLD 10 11 X X 21
BOSTON MA 78 X X X 78 ILE ST PIERRE 6 11 X 1 18
PORTLAND ME 60 X X X 60 CAPE RACE NFLD 1 12 1 X 14
BAR HARBOR ME 52 X X X 52 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 5 6 X 11
EASTPORT ME 45 X X X 45
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
© 1999 FIU High Performance Database Research Center