ADV  LAT    LON    DATE/TIME  WIND   PR   STATUS
  1   12.3   -24.7  09/11/15 Z   30   1004  TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 ...formed
  2   13.1   -26.8  09/11/21 Z   30   1004  TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3   13.1   -28.5  09/12/03 Z   30   1004  TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  4   13.3   -30.1  09/12/09 Z   30   1004  TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  5   14.0   -32.8  09/12/15 Z   35   1001  TROPICAL STORM GERT...reclassified
  6   14.6   -34.7  09/12/21 Z   55    996  TROPICAL STORM
  7   15.1   -36.4  09/13/03 Z   55    994  TROPICAL STORM
  8   15.3   -38.1  09/13/09 Z   60    990  TROPICAL STORM
  9   16.1   -40.1  09/13/15 Z   65    987  HURRICANE GERT...reclassified
 10   16.0   -41.6  09/13/21 Z   75    979  HURRICANE
 11   16.3   -42.7  09/14/03 Z   75    979  HURRICANE
 12   16.7   -43.9  09/14/09 Z   90    970  HURRICANE
 13   17.1   -45.3  09/14/15 Z   90    970  HURRICANE
 14   17.2   -46.5  09/14/21 Z  100    960  HURRICANE
 15   17.3   -47.3  09/15/03 Z  110    952  HURRICANE
 16   17.6   -48.5  09/15/09 Z  110    952  HURRICANE
 17   17.6   -49.5  09/15/15 Z  115    948  HURRICANE
 18   17.6   -50.7  09/15/21 Z  125    930  HURRICANE
 19   17.9   -51.2  09/16/03 Z  130    933  HURRICANE
 20   18.1   -52.2  09/16/09 Z  125    941  HURRICANE
 21   18.3   -52.9  09/16/15 Z  125    941  HURRICANE
 22   18.8   -53.9  09/16/21 Z  110    941  HURRICANE
 23   19.4   -54.6  09/17/03 Z  115    941  HURRICANE
 24   19.7   -55.7  09/17/09 Z  120    942  HURRICANE
 25   20.2   -56.3  09/17/15 Z  120    944  HURRICANE
 26   20.5   -56.8  09/17/21 Z  110    952  HURRICANE
 27   21.3   -57.1  09/18/03 Z  105    950  HURRICANE
 28   22.2   -57.4  09/18/09 Z  105    955  HURRICANE
 29   22.6   -57.9  09/18/15 Z  105    960  HURRICANE
 30   23.2   -58.1  09/18/21 Z  105    960  HURRICANE
 31   24.0   -58.5  09/19/03 Z  110    955  HURRICANE
 32   24.3   -58.9  09/19/09 Z  115    948  HURRICANE
 33   24.9   -59.5  09/19/15 Z  115    955  HURRICANE
 34   25.4   -60.4  09/19/21 Z  115    950  HURRICANE
 34A  26.3   -60.8  09/20/00 Z  115    950  HURRICANE
 35   26.5   -61.1  09/20/03 Z  115    950  HURRICANE
 35A  26.8   -61.4  09/20/06 Z  115    955  HURRICANE
 36   27.3   -61.8  09/20/09 Z  110    955  HURRICANE
 36A  27.7   -62.0  09/20/12 Z  105    955  HURRICANE
 37   27.9   -62.3  09/20/15 Z  105    960  HURRICANE
 37A  28.3   -62.5  09/20/18 Z  105    960  HURRICANE
 38   28.6   -62.9  09/20/21 Z  105    948  HURRICANE
 38A  29.1   -62.8  09/21/00 Z  100    948  HURRICANE
 39   29.6   -62.8  09/21/03 Z   95    960  HURRICANE
 39A  30.0   -62.8  09/21/06 Z   95    955  HURRICANE
 40   30.5   -62.8  09/21/09 Z   95    954  HURRICANE
 40A  31.1   -62.6  09/21/12 Z   95    954  HURRICANE
 41   31.7   -62.5  09/21/15 Z   95    955  HURRICANE
 41A  32.6   -62.3  09/21/18 Z   90    957  HURRICANE
 42   33.4   -61.9  09/21/21 Z   90    960  HURRICANE
 43   35.2   -60.8  09/22/03 Z   80    970  HURRICANE
 44   37.2   -60.0  09/22/09 Z   75    979  HURRICANE
 45   39.5   -58.7  09/22/15 Z   75    967  HURRICANE
 46                 09/22/21 Z
 WIND is in knots
 PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

summary not available...
*********************************************** 09-11-99 ********************************
 no data available...
 ********************************************** 09-12-99 ********************************
 no data available...
 ********************************************** 09-13-99 ********************************
 no data available...
 ********************************************** 09-14-99 ********************************
 no data available...
 ********************************************** 09-15-99 ********************************

11 AM AST WED SEP 15 1999
 
 ...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
 1295 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
  
 GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
 HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GERT THE FOURTH CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
 THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE OF THE 1999 HURRICANE SEASON.  
 
 SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO.
 
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 49.5 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. 
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
  
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 5 PM AST.
  
 AVILA
  
 STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
 FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
  

 HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
 
 GERT CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE EYE IS MORE DEFINED AND
 DISTINCT ON IMAGES AND IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
 WITH TOPS BETWEEN -70 AND 75 DEGREES CELSIUS.  OBJECTIVE AND
 SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THIS
 DATA...WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.  THIS MAKES GERT THE FOURTH
 CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON-SCALE OF THE SEASON.
 SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING HE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
 THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...AS THE
 HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAKENING OF THE
 RIDGE...ERODED BY HURRICANE FLOYD AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. A GRADUAL
 TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS THEN INDICATED AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
 55W. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE HURRICANE WELL NORTH TO THE LEEWARD
 ISLANDS.
 
 NOTE: A DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EYEWALL OF GERT
 REPORTED NORTH WINDS OF 97 KNOTS.  THIS REPORT HAS YET TO BE
 CONFIRMED.
 
 AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     15/1500Z 17.6N  49.5W   115 KTS
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N  51.1W   115 KTS
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N  53.5W   115 KTS
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  55.5W   115 KTS
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N  57.5W   115 KTS
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N  60.5W   115 KTS

NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.) 


 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0999
 1500Z WED SEP 15 1999
   
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  49.5W AT 15/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT
 64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
 50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW
 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW
 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW
 ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  49.5W AT 15/1500Z
 AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  49.0W
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N  51.1W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N  53.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N  55.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  49.5W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N  57.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N  60.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z


 HURRICANE GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM AST WED SEP 15 1999
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.5 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST SAT SEP 18 1999
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 18.5N  53.5W      53  X  X  X 53   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X  2  2
 19.5N  55.5W       5 26  X  X 31   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X  3  3
 20.5N  57.5W       X 14  9  1 24   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X  2  2
 TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  1  2  3   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X  2  2
 TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  1  4  5   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X  3  3
 TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  1  3  4   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X  2  2
 TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  1  5  6
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  8AM THU TO  8PM THU
 C FROM  8PM THU TO  8AM FRI
 D FROM  8AM FRI TO  8AM SAT
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

 ********************************************** 09-17-99 ********************************

 11 AM AST FRI SEP 17 1999
 
 ...SEVERE HURRICANE GERT ON WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...A POTENTIAL
 THREAT TO BERMUDA...
  
 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GERT OVER THE
 WEEKEND...
 
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
 1575 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
  
 GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. ON
 THIS PATH GERT WILL BE MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
 DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS.
  
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.2 N... 56.3 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
 140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
  
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 5 PM AST.

 HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999
  
 GERT CONTINUES TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE.  SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES
 FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE DVORAK-
 SCALE.  THE OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST
 ...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE UPPER-LEVEL MID
 OCEANIC TROUGH.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED AND
 GERT SHOULD REMAIN AS A SEVERE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...A
 SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
 INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 300/09. THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL CHANGE IN THE
 GUIDANCE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN COULD BE DELAYED
 AND INSTEAD IS FORECAST TO BE MORE GRADUAL.  EVEN THE UK MODEL...HAS
 THE TURN A FEW DEGREES FARTHER TO THE WEST.  THE AVN WAS THE FIRST
 MODEL TO SUGGEST THIS TURN.  THIS CHANGE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...
 INCREASES THE THREAT TO BERMUDA IN THE LONG RANGE. 

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     17/1500Z 20.2N  56.3W   120 KTS
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.9N  57.3W   120 KTS
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  58.5W   120 KTS
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N  60.0W   115 KTS
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N  61.5W   115 KTS
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 27.0N  65.0W   115 KTS
  

 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0999
 1500Z FRI SEP 17 1999
   
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  56.3W AT 17/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  9 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT
 64 KT.......105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT.......150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT.......200NE 175SE 125SW 160NW
 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 300SW 400NW
 ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  56.3W AT 17/1500Z
 AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  55.9W
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.9N  57.3W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N  58.5W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N  60.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 160NW
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N  56.3W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.5N  61.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 50 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 27.0N  65.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
 50 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 130NW
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z


 HURRICANE GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM AST FRI SEP 17 1999
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.3 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST MON SEP 20 1999
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 22.0N  58.5W      45  X  X  X 45   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X  2  2
 23.5N  60.0W      18  9  1  X 28   BERMUDA            X  X  X  8  8
 24.5N  61.5W       2 17  2  2 23   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X  2  2
 TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  1  1  2
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
 C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
 D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  

 ********************************************** 09-20-99 ********************************

 8 AM AST MON SEP 20 1999
  
 ...HURRICANE GERT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
 FOR BERMUDA.
  
 AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565
 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
  
 GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A TURN
 TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.  A
 DRIFTING BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 965 MB...28.49 INCHES
 EARLIER TODAY AS GERT MOVED NEARBY.
  
 REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...27.7 N... 62.0 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. 
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
  
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 11 AM AST.


 HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
  
 INITIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS A MORE RAGGED
 STRUCTURE THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE EYE IS LESS WELL-
 DEFINED AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS EXTENSIVE.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT AND THIS IS PERHAPS GENEROUS.
 SSTS ARE STILL WARM UNDER THE HURRICANE BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
 DRY AIR ENTERING THE INNER CORE FROM THE WEST SIDE.  THE SHIPS
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL INDICATES WEAKENING THAT RESULTS FROM
 INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...WARM
 TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
 BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...WITH
 SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE
 NORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE MID-TO
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
 ALL GUIDANCE RECURVES GERT EAST OF BERMUDA AND ON THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THESE
 ISLANDS.  THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUE
 FOR BERMUDA.  IF GERT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST THE HURRICANE WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...
 AND COULD PROMPT THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.  ALL INTERESTS
 IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
 HURRICANE.
  
 FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     20/0900Z 27.3N  61.8W   110 KTS
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.7N  62.8W   105 KTS
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 30.5N  63.2W   100 KTS
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 32.8N  62.9W    95 KTS
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  61.5W    90 KTS
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 42.0N  57.0W    80 KTS


 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0999
 0900Z MON SEP 20 1999
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
 FOR BERMUDA.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  61.8W AT 20/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT
 64 KT.......105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT.......180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT.......225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
 12 FT SEAS..900NE 600SE 600SW 600NW
 ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  61.8W AT 20/0900Z
 AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  61.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N  62.8W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.5N  63.2W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.8N  62.9W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N  61.8W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N  61.5W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
 50 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 100NW
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N  57.0W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
 50 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 100NW
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z


 HURRICANE GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 5 AM AST MON SEP 20 1999
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.8 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST THU SEP 23 1999
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 30.5N  63.2W      43  X  X  X 43   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  6  6
 32.8N  62.9W       8 19  1  X 28   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  6  6
 35.5N  61.5W       X  1 15  3 19   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  7  7
 BERMUDA            7 21  X  X 28   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  8  8
 PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X 10 10
 NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  3  3   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  7  7
 HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  3  3   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  8  8
 BOSTON MA          X  X  X  2  2   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  6  6
 PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  3  3   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  5  5
 BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  4  4   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  5  5
 EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  5  5   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X  3  3
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
 C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
 D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

 11 AM AST MON SEP 20 1999
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
 540 KM...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
  
 GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
 ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
 GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
 
 STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
 BATTERING WAVES OVER PORTIONS OF BERMUDA.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
  
 REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...27.9 N... 62.3 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
  
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
 AST.
 


 HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
  
 SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT...BUT I
 WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT COMES BACK LATER TODAY.  THE OVERALL
 CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS ORGANIZED AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE
 DECREASING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS. A
 GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
 HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND COOLER SST.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 330/08.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
 APPROACHING TROUGH.  MODELS VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48
 HOURS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND MOVES
 THE HURRICANE JUST EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE EXTEND ABOUT 90 N
 MI.  THEREFORE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS
 TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     20/1500Z 27.9N  62.3W   105 KTS
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.1N  63.0W   100 KTS
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 31.1N  63.4W    95 KTS
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 33.0N  63.0W    90 KTS
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  61.5W    85 KTS
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 44.5N  53.0W    80 KTS
 


 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0999
 1500Z MON SEP 20 1999
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  62.3W AT 20/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT
 64 KT.......105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT.......180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT.......225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
 12 FT SEAS..900NE 600SE 600SW 600NW
 ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  62.3W AT 20/1500Z
 AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  62.0W
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.1N  63.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.1N  63.4W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 33.0N  63.0W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
 64 KT...105NE  75SE  50SW  90NW
 50 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 130NW
 34 KT...225NE 200SE 125SW 160NW
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N  62.3W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N  61.5W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 100 KT
 50 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 100NW
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N  53.0W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
 50 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 100NW
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z



 HURRICANE GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 11 AM AST MON SEP 20 1999
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.3 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST THU SEP 23 1999
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 31.1N  63.4W      50  X  X  X 50   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  8  8
 33.0N  63.0W      13 15  1  X 29   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X 11 11
 36.0N  61.5W       X  1 15  4 20   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  9  9
 BERMUDA           14 16  X  X 30   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  9  9
 BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  3  3   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  8  8
 EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  4  4   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  8  8
 ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  5  5   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  8  8
 MONCTON NB         X  X  X  6  6   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X  7  7
 YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  6  6   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  X  2  2
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
 C FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
 D FROM  8AM WED TO  8AM THU
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

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