INFORMATION
ADV LAT LON DATE/TIME WIND PR STATUS 1 24.9 -88.0 09/19/09 Z 30 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 ... formed 2 26.1 -87.7 09/19/15 Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...repositioned 3 26.1 -87.8 09/19/21 Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 26.1 -87.6 09/20/03 Z 40 1002 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...reclassified 4A 26.2 -87.5 09/20/06 Z 40 1002 TROPICAL STORM 5 26.3 -87.3 09/20/09 Z 40 1001 TROPICAL STORM 5A 26.9 -86.2 09/20/12 Z 40 1000 TROPICAL STORM 6 27.1 -85.9 09/20/15 Z 45 998 TROPICAL STORM 6A 27.1 -85.6 09/20/18 Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM 7 27.0 -85.4 09/20/21 Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM 7A 27.2 -84.8 09/21/00 Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM 8 27.1 -84.2 09/21/03 Z 50 995 TROPICAL STORM 8A 26.6 -84.0 09/21/06 Z 50 997 TROPICAL STORM 9 26.4 -83.5 09/21/09 Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM 9A 26.0 -82.8 09/21/12 Z 45 996 TROPICAL STORM 10 25.8 -82.0 09/21/15 Z 45 996 TROPICAL STORM 10A 25.8 -81.5 09/21/18 Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM...inland 11 26.3 -80.5 09/21/21 Z 45 999 TROPICAL STORM...inland 11A 26.8 -79.0 09/22/00 Z 45 996 TROPICAL STORM...offshore 12 27.5 -77.2 09/22/03 Z 35 999 TROPICAL STORM...last (becoming extratropical) WIND is in knots PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)
SUMMARY
POST HURRICANE REPORT...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
PRELIMINARY STORM SUMMARY...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...SEPTEMBER 21,1999
COUNTIES INCLUDED...MONROE
A. HIGHEST WINDS...
LOCATION DATE/TIME (UTC) SUSTAINED WIND/PEAK GUST (KT)
MOLASSES REEF C-MAN 21/1743 22047/59
SAND KEY C-MAN 21/1305 23035/39
SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN 21/1400 23035/37
KEY WEST INTL AP 21/1404 23032/37
LONG KEY C-MAN 21/1200 22027/31
DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN 21/1200 22023/30
B. LOWEST PRESSURE...
LOCATION DATE/TIME (UTC) PRESSURE (MB)
MOLASSES REEF C-MAN 21/1800 1001.5
SAND KEY C-MAN 21/1700 1002.9
LONG KEY C-MAN 21/1800 1003.1
KEY WEST INTL AP 21/1956 1004.1
SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN 21/1600 1004.3
C. RAINFALL...
STORM TOTAL ENDING 8 AM SEPTEMBER 22
LOCATION AMOUNT (IN)
TAVERNIER 1.13
KEY WEST INTL AP 0.33
MARATHON AP 0.04
D. STORM TIDES...
LOCATION MAXIMUM HEIGHT HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL DATE/TIME (UTC)
KEY WEST 2.76 FEET 0.81 FEET 21/1130
VACA KEY 2.02 FEET 1.04 FEET 21/1400
E. BEACH EROSION...
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGHOUT ALL OF
THE KEYS AND ON WEST FACING SHORES ALONG FLORIDA BAY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
F. FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGHOUT ALL
OF THE KEYS AND WEST FACING SHORES ALONG THE FLROIDA BAY IN THE
UPPER KEYS. HIGHWAY A1A ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF KEY WEST HAD ONE
LANE CLOSED FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING.
G. TORNADOES...
NONE
H. STORM EFFECTS...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE KEYS. THE EFFECTS
WERE GREATEST IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS KNOCKED DOWN A FEW TREES
IN THE OCEAN REEF AREA.
*********************************************** 09-19-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-20-99 ********************************
8 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
...HARVEY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.
HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT...
EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
529
WTNT45 KNHC 200838
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
HARVEY IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER ITSELF IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND. THE 08Z OBSERVATION FROM
BUOY 42003 INDICATES 31 KT WINDS AND A 1002.7 MB PRESSURE...WHICH
WOULD IMPLY A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1001 OR 1000 MB. CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 KT.
BASED ON LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE AND AFTER THE ECLIPSE...
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 065/02. HOWEVER...THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION MIGHT BE A LITTLE FASTER. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH HARVEY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH
THIS...ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE A MORE EASTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE ONE REAL MODEL OUTLIER IS THE
NOGAPS...WHICH MOVES HARVEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...SOME DEVELOPMENT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE
SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW THE STORM INTERACTS
WITH THE TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN
24 HOURS...THEN CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED SHEARING
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF HARVEY IS MOVING FASTER...
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 26.3N 87.3W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 26.5N 86.8W 45 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 26.8N 85.6W 50 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 27.9N 83.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 80.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 36.5N 67.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1099
0900Z MON SEP 20 1999
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.4W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.5N 86.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.9N 83.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 87.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 36.5N 67.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.8N 85.6W 33 X X X 33 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5
27.9N 83.4W 10 14 1 X 25 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 5 5
29.5N 80.0W X 6 13 2 21 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 4 4
MUHA 230N 824W X 1 1 1 3 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 2 3 HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W X X 2 3 5 BOSTON MA X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 1 8 4 13 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
BERMUDA X X X 6 6 KEY WEST FL X 3 5 1 9
MARATHON FL X 2 5 2 9 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 9 6 X 16
MIAMI FL X 3 8 2 13 FT MYERS FL 1 13 5 X 19
W PALM BEACH FL X 4 10 2 16 VENICE FL 4 15 3 X 22
FT PIERCE FL X 7 10 2 19 TAMPA FL 3 17 3 X 23
COCOA BEACH FL X 10 9 2 21 CEDAR KEY FL 3 17 3 X 23
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 12 9 1 22 ST MARKS FL 2 12 4 1 19
JACKSONVILLE FL X 9 10 1 20 APALACHICOLA FL 5 11 3 X 19
SAVANNAH GA X 2 11 4 17 PANAMA CITY FL 3 10 3 X 16
CHARLESTON SC X X 9 7 16 PENSACOLA FL X 4 4 1 9
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 5 10 15 MOBILE AL X 1 2 X 3
WILMINGTON NC X X 3 12 15 GULFPORT MS X 1 1 X 2
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 12 14 BURAS LA X 1 1 X 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 13 14 GULF 29N 85W 12 9 1 X 22
NORFOLK VA X X X 11 11 GULF 29N 87W 10 5 1 X 16
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 9 9 GULF 28N 89W 6 3 1 X 10
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...COLLIER...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM HARVEY.
...WATCH/WARNING
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
INCLUDING THE MIAMI FORT LAUDERDALE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
EAST CAPE SABLE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING NAPLES.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES FOR
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
...CENTER LOCATION/MOVEMENT/INTENSITY AND TREND...
AT 9 PM EDT TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NAPLES. HARVEY WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 8 MPH AND
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOME ON TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...WIND INFORMATION
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH SHOULD ONLY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
...RAINFALL/FLOODING
SOME RAINFALL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN COLLIER...WESTERN
GLADES AND WESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA WILL DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER
BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT
COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES. TUESDAY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
...STORM SURGE FLOODING/TIDE/OTHER MARINE HAZARDS
WINDS ACROSS COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING OF
2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES FOR NAPLES PIER WILL OCCUR AROUND 1042 PM EDT TONIGHT AND 1008
AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...COLLIER...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM HARVEY.
...WATCH/WARNING
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
INCLUDING THE MIAMI FORT LAUDERDALE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
EAST CAPE SABLE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING NAPLES.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
...CENTER LOCATION/MOVEMENT/INTENSITY AND TREND...
AT 9 PM EDT TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NAPLES. HARVEY WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 8 MPH AND
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOME ON TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...WIND INFORMATION
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH SHOULD ONLY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
...RAINFALL/FLOODING
SOME RAINFALL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN COLLIER...WESTERN
GLADES AND WESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA WILL DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER
BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT
COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES. TUESDAY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
...STORM SURGE FLOODING/TIDE/OTHER MARINE HAZARDS
WINDS ACROSS COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING OF
2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES FOR NAPLES PIER WILL OCCUR AROUND 1042 PM EDT TONIGHT AND 1008
AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...
COLLIER...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM HARVEY.
...WATCH/WARNING
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FOR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM BOCA RATON TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH INCLUDING THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING NAPLES. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST FROM BOCA
RATON TO FLORIDA CITY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
...CENTER LOCATION/MOVEMENT/INTENSITY AND TREND...
AT 11 PM EDT TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NAPLES. HARVEY WAS MOVING EAST 8 MPH AND SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOME ON TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
...WIND INFORMATION
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH SHOULD ONLY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
...RAINFALL/FLOODING
SOME RAINFALL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN COLLIER...WESTERN
GLADES AND WESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY BE OVER COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES. TUESDAY
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
...STORM SURGE FLOODING/TIDE/OTHER MARINE HAZARDS
WINDS ACROSS COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING OF
2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES FOR NAPLES PIER WILL OCCUR AROUND 1008 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 AM TONIGHT.
*********************************************** 09-21-99 ********************************
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY MOVING WELL SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD...
...FLOOD WATCH FOR INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES
TODAY...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
FLORIDA SOUTHWEST COAST IN VICINITY OF FORT MYERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HARVEY WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND
EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH DURING THE EVENING.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN MAINLY
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER. GIVEN THE FORECAST
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...FLOODING RAINS...AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE LESSENED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JUPITER INLET. HARVEY
WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AND A TURN TO THE
EAST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
...CURRENT RADAR/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
AT 515 AM...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WAS MOVING EAST. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
BE LOW TODAY. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
SOME LOCATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST THREE DAYS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SATURATED SOILS...FULL RETENTION PONDS...AND SMALL STREAMS RUNNING
NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS TODAY...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES IN MOST
AREAS. CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF HARVEY...ACROSS INDIAN RIVER...SAINT
LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES...RAINFALL MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PERSISTENT. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT A
WHILE LONGER FOR THESE COUNTIES...BUT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. PEOPLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA
SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING
BECOMES IMMINENT.
...WIND INFORMATION...
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HARVEY WERE NEAR 50 MPH AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS
REASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
...HARVEY LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACOS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF
FREEPORT IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING LOW/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
...TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON HARVEY. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/MARINE
PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC OR AFOS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
093
WTNT45 KNHC 220246
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO LOOSE ITS IDENTITY THIS EVENING AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW LOCATED
ABOUT 135 NMI SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CENTER OF
HARVEY IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF THERE IS A DISTINCT ONE LEFT
TO FIND...IN EITHER SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE DATA. THE BEST
ESTIMATE BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUTS A CENTER
JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 065/27 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATION EAST-
NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT WITH THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HARVEY
WILL BE OFFICIALLY DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL BY 12 HRS.
EFFECTIVE 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND THE ABACOS.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HARVEY. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 AND UNDER AFOS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1.
GUINEY
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 27.5N 77.2W 35 KTS
12HR VT 22/1200Z 29.5N 73.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 23/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
345
WTNT75 KNHC 220238
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 24 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 W PALM BEACH FL 4 X X X 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 09-22-99 ********************************
959
WTNT25 KNHC 220230
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1099
0300Z WED SEP 22 1999
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACOS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 77.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 27 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 77.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 77.2W
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON HARVEY. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/MARINE
PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC OR AFOS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
*********************************************** 09-23-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-24-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 09-25-99 ********************************
no data available...
© 1999 FIU High Performance Database Research Center