INFORMATION
ADV LAT LON DATE/TIME WIND PR STATUS 1 18.5 -83.5 10/13/15 Z 35 1002 TROPICAL STORM IRENE...formed 2 20.2 -83.7 10/13/21 Z 45 1002 TROPICAL STORM 2A 20.7 -83.5 10/14/00 Z 50 999 TROPICAL STORM 3 21.1 -83.5 10/14/03 Z 55 999 TROPICAL STORM 3A 21.3 -83.5 10/14/06 Z 55 999 TROPICAL STORM 4 21.6 -83.7 10/14/09 Z 65 995 HURRICANE...reclassified 4A 21.6 -83.5 10/14/12 Z 65 995 HURRICANE 5 21.7 -83.4 10/14/15 Z 65 995 HURRICANE 5A 22.2 -82.4 10/14/18 Z 65 995 HURRICANE 6 22.9 -82.3 10/14/21 Z 65 993 HURRICANE 6A 23.3 -82.7 10/15/00 Z 65 988 HURRICANE...relocated 7 23.4 -82.6 10/15/03 Z 65 988 HURRICANE 7A 23.8 -82.1 10/15/06 Z 65 988 HURRICANE...relocated 8 24.1 -82.2 10/15/09 Z 65 986 HURRICANE 9 24.3 -82.0 10/15/12 Z 65 987 HURRICANE...NHC did not issue 8A 10 24.7 -81.6 10/15/15 Z 65 987 HURRICANE 10A 25.1 -81.3 10/15/18 Z 65 982 HURRICANE 11 25.6 -81.0 10/15/21 Z 75 985 HURRICANE...inland 11A 26.1 -80.8 10/16/00 Z 70 987 HURRICANE...inland 12 26.4 -80.4 10/16/03 Z 65 988 HURRICANE...inland 12A 27.0 -80.2 10/16/06 Z 65 989 HURRICANE...inland 13 27.4 -80.2 10/16/09 Z 65 986 HURRICANE...onshore 13A 27.8 -80.1 10/16/12 Z 65 985 HURRICANE...offshore 14 28.2 -80.0 10/16/15 Z 70 986 HURRICANE 14A 28.6 -79.9 10/16/18 Z 70 984 HURRICANE 15 28.8 -80.0 10/16/21 Z 70 984 HURRICANE 15A 29.3 -79.8 10/17/00 Z 70 984 HURRICANE 16 29.9 -79.7 10/17/03 Z 65 984 HURRICANE 16A 30.2 -79.9 10/17/06 Z 65 984 HURRICANE 17 30.7 -79.9 10/17/09 Z 65 982 HURRICANE 17A 31.2 -79.9 10/17/12 Z 65 982 HURRICANE 18 31.7 -79.8 10/17/15 Z 65 982 HURRICANE 18A 32.1 -79.3 10/17/18 Z 65 978 HURRICANE 19 32.7 -78.5 10/17/21 Z 65 978 HURRICANE 19A 33.3 -77.8 10/18/00 Z 65 978 HURRICANE 20 33.8 -76.5 10/18/03 Z 65 974 HURRICANE 20A 34.8 -75.3 10/18/06 Z 75 964 HURRICANE 21 35.6 -75.2 10/18/09 Z 90 958 HURRICANE 22 37.8 -69.9 10/18/15 Z 90 958 HURRICANE 23 40.6 -64.8 10/18/21 Z 85 965 HURRICANE 24 43.0 -58.0 10/19/03 Z 75 965 HURRICANE...last...extratropical WIND is in knots PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)
SUMMARY
IRENE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON OCT 13. ON THE 14TH IRENE REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND MOVED NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ON THE 15TH, WITH
MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 WINDS OF 75 MPH IRENE CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA. AT
11PM A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS RAISED FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. ON THE MORNING OF THE 16TH IRENE EMERGED OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR FORT PIERCE, AND AT 5 AM A HURRICANE WATCH
WAS RAISED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS NC.
AT 11 AM A HURRICANE WARNING WAS RAISED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SURF CITY NC. IRENE MOVED NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH
MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 STRENGTH THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE 17TH, WHEN AT
11 AM THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS ABOUT 60 MILES FROM EDISTO ISLAND
SC. THEN, A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NUDGED IRENE TO
THE NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTER OF IRENE FOLLOWED A TRACK PARALLEL TO
THE COASTLINE, ABOUT 60 MILES OFFSHORE AS THE STORM PASSED CAPE FEAR
JUST AFTER SUNSET ON THE 17TH.
Hurricane Irene was blamed for several deaths along its path and caused significant
damage to Florida, and brought additional rain to North Carolina, already reeling
from Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd.
*********************************************** DETAILS *********************************
AT 8 AM EDT ON 10-15 THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST...130 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES...OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MIAMI. IRENE IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH MAKES IRENE A MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 81.6W NEAR KEY WEST...
100 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES...OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. IRENE IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. AT 1220 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 SQUALLS BUFFETING SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 61 MPH AT HOMESTEAD AIR RESERVE BASE. FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUED FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD COUNTY... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE
WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 81.3W...80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES...OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. IRENE IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS
AT SOUTH FLORIDA LOCATIONS INCLUDED...
LOCATION MAXIMUM WIND
HOMESTEAD ARB 85 MPH
MIAMI INTL AP 55 MPH
FORT LAUDERDALE AP 47 MPH
WEST PALM BEACH AP 43 MPH
GUST OF 70 MPH AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 4 PM
AT 5 PM...HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH.
AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.0W...INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MIAMI. IRENE IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IRENE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER LAND. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985 MB.
*********************************************** 10-13-99 ********************************
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 13 1999
..COR WORD STORM MISSING
...TROPICAL STORM IRENE...THE NINTH OF THE SEASON...FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM IRENE. AT 11 AM EDT...
1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IRENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE KEYS.
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
917
WTNT43 KNHC 131448
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 13 1999
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RAOB OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND CAYMAN INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION
AND THE INTENSITY OF IRENE LATER TODAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT. CONVENTIONAL TOOLS INDICATE THAT IRENE COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING.
INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IRENE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE
BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 345/7. IRENE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL SLOW
NORTH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK TROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IRENE COULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UK
MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY FOR CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTEREST IN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLROIDA AND THE KEYS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM
IRENE.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 18.5N 83.5W 35 KTS
12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 84.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 84.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 15/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 84.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 83.5W 70 KTS
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
620
WTNT23 KNHC 131549 COR
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1399
1500Z WED OCT 13 1999
...WORD STORM MISSING
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.5W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 83.5W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
678
WTNT73 KNHC 131445
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 13 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.0N 84.5W 57 X X X 57 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4
21.5N 84.5W 31 4 X X 35 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2
23.0N 84.5W 5 19 2 1 27 KEY WEST FL X X 6 8 14
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 10 12
MWCG 193N 814W 5 4 1 2 12 FT MYERS FL X X 2 10 12
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 VENICE FL X X 2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W X X 4 6 10 TAMPA FL X X 1 10 11
MUSN 216N 826W 8 9 2 2 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 10 10
MUHA 230N 824W X 7 7 3 17 ST MARKS FL X X X 9 9
MUAN 219N 850W 23 10 X X 33 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 9 10
MMCZ 205N 869W 5 7 2 2 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 9 10
MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 4 4 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 4 4 GULFPORT MS X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 5 5 BURAS LA X X X 6 6
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 3 4 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL X X 3 9 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
MIAMI FL X X 1 8 9 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 10 12
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 9 11
FT PIERCE FL X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 7 9
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 10-14-99 ********************************
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999
...SLOWLY-MOVING IRENE DRENCHING CUBA...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.
AT 11 AM EST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BOCA GRANDE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY
CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4
WEST...VERY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IRENE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK IRENE WILL AFFECTING CUBA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HEAVY RAINS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999
RADARS FROM CUBA AND KEY WEST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
IRENE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM AN OVERNIGHT FLIGHT
OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE IRENE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT IRENE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A RECCONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE INTENSITY...65 KNOTS...IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IAMGERY. THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER. A NOAA P3 PLANE WILL CHECK THE WIND STRUCTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE LATER TODAY. STRENTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY GFDL COUPLED MODEL.
*********************************************** 10-15-99 ********************************
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA...AND ABACO
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA...AND ABACO ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS...INCLUDING ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
FLORIDA CITY TO SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF THE ANCLOTE KEYS TO YANKEETOWN.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
IRENE IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
GUST TO 103 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT BIG PINE KEY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT...JUST
EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FRANKLIN/BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
637
WTNT43 KNHC 151151
TCDAT3
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA...AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT OF THE
CENTER POSITION...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE BEING
ADJUSTED ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST. THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT AFFECT ANY U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
FRANKLIN/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1200Z 24.3N 82.0W 65 KTS
12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.1N 82.0W 70 KTS
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 70 KTS
36HR VT 16/1800Z 28.2N 82.0W 65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0600Z 30.5N 81.5W 45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0600Z 35.5N 79.5W 35 KTS...INLAND
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
818
WTNT23 KNHC 151153
TCMAT3
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1399
1200Z FRI OCT 15 1999
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA...AND ABACO ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS...INCLUDING ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
FLORIDA CITY TO SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF THE ANCLOTE KEYS TO YANKEETOWN.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 82.0W AT 15/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 45NW
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 82.0W AT 15/1200Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 82.2W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.1N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 45NW
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 45NW
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.2N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 82.0W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
FRANKLIN/BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
877
WTNT73 KNHC 151154
SPFAT3
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.5N 82.2W 45 X X X 45 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
28.2N 82.0W 13 14 1 1 29 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2
30.5N 81.5W X 8 11 2 21 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 BOSTON MA X X X 3 3
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99
MYNN 251N 775W X 1 X 2 3 MARCO ISLAND FL 52 X X X 52
MYGF 266N 787W 6 4 1 2 13 FT MYERS FL 42 X X X 42
MARATHON FL 63 X X X 63 VENICE FL 35 2 X X 37
MIAMI FL 27 1 X X 28 TAMPA FL 17 13 X X 30
W PALM BEACH FL 22 2 X X 24 CEDAR KEY FL 2 20 3 X 25
FT PIERCE FL 17 6 X 1 24 ST MARKS FL X 9 10 2 21
COCOA BEACH FL 9 13 1 X 23 APALACHICOLA FL X 10 8 2 20
DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 17 4 1 23 PANAMA CITY FL X 6 9 2 17
JACKSONVILLE FL X 8 11 2 21 PENSACOLA FL X 1 7 4 12
SAVANNAH GA X 1 12 5 18 MOBILE AL X X 4 5 9
CHARLESTON SC X X 8 8 16 GULFPORT MS X X 2 6 8
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 10 14 BURAS LA X X 2 4 6
WILMINGTON NC X X 2 10 12 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 4 5
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 9 10 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 9 9 GULF 29N 85W 1 15 3 2 21
NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9 GULF 29N 87W X 4 7 3 14
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X 1 2 4 7
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
*********************************************** 10-16-99 ********************************
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
...IRENE HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
ALL INTEREST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH WAS
REPORTED RECENTLY AT ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255
MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...EVEN MODEST ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
PASCH
WTNT3 Archive
812
WTNT43 KNHC 162036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRENE HAS A VERY LARGE EYE WITH MINIMAL
DEEP CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND WAS 72 KNOTS. THIS MORNING A SHIP REPORTED 68 KTS...AND THE
PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE DAY SO I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP
THE SURFACE ESTIMATE BELOW 70 KT. THE MOST RECENT EXTRAPOLATED
ESTIMATE FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 982...BUT THESE ARE USUALLY TOO LOW
BY A COUPLE MB. ALTHOUGH SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY...IRENE WILL PASS OVER SOME WARM WATER PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE VIGOROUS.
THE MOTION OF IRENE DURING THE DAY HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND RESEMBLES A
TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATION...WITH THE MEAN MOTION ESTIMATED AT 000/9.
AN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS PLACES A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE
COASTLINE UNDER THE RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN.
FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 28.8N 80.0W 70 KTS
12HR VT 17/0600Z 30.4N 79.8W 70 KTS
24HR VT 17/1800Z 32.6N 79.4W 75 KTS
36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.4N 75.4W 65 KTS
48HR VT 18/1800Z 41.5N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 19/1800Z 54.0N 43.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
874
WTNT23 KNHC 16203
TCMAT3
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1399
2100Z SAT OCT 16 1999
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
ALL INTEREST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT
64 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 75NW
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 75SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 75SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.4N 79.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE 75SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 79.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE 75SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.4N 75.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE 75SW 100NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 80.0W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 54.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
801
WTNT73 KNHC 162047
SPFAT3
HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
32.6N 79.4W 35 2 X X 37 NANTUCKET MA X X 14 4 18
36.4N 75.4W X 15 7 X 22 HYANNIS MA X X 13 4 17
41.5N 68.0W X X 10 7 17 BOSTON MA X X 13 4 17
FT PIERCE FL 11 X X X 11 PORTLAND ME X X 10 5 15
COCOA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 BAR HARBOR ME X X 7 8 15
DAYTONA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 EASTPORT ME X X 5 10 15
JACKSONVILLE FL 24 1 X X 25 ST JOHN NB X X 4 11 15
SAVANNAH GA 33 X X X 33 MONCTON NB X X 2 13 15
CHARLESTON SC 34 2 X X 36 YARMOUTH NS X X 5 11 16
MYRTLE BEACH SC 18 13 X X 31 HALIFAX NS X X 2 14 16
WILMINGTON NC 5 21 1 X 27 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 14 14
MOREHEAD CITY NC 1 21 2 X 24 SYDNEY NS X X X 15 15
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 17 5 X 22 EDDY POINT NS X X 1 14 15
NORFOLK VA X 16 6 X 22 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 15 15
OCEAN CITY MD X 9 11 1 21 BURGEO NFLD X X X 15 15
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 5 14 X 19 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 14 14
NEW YORK CITY NY X 2 15 1 18 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 12 12
MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 14 3 18 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 9 9
PROVIDENCE RI X X 14 3 17
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
WTNT7 Archive
*********************************************** 10-17-99 ********************************
904
WWUS31 KILM 180325
HLSILM
AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-180130-
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
...HURRICANE IRENE RACING AWAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT NORTH OF SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS AT 33.8 NORTH...
76.5 W OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA. MOVEMENT IS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE OVER THE REGION HAS ALMOST
ENDED AS THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY RAPIDLY WITH
IRENE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RANGING UP TO NEARLY 7 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING 3 TO 5 INCHES.
...COASTAL AND TIDAL INFORMATION...
THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRYING PAN
TOWER AND THE SEAS WERE REPORTED AS HIGH AS 27 FEET. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 15 TO 20 FEET OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH-EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THEREFORE A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED.
BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PEOPLE ARE
URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE OCEAN DUE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND
UNDERTOWS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
CHECK ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
ON IRENE.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE IRENE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.
ANTHONY
904
WWUS31 KILM 180325
HLSILM
AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-180130-
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
...HURRICANE IRENE RACING AWAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT NORTH OF SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS AT 33.8 NORTH...
76.5 W OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA. MOVEMENT IS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE OVER THE REGION HAS ALMOST
ENDED AS THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY RAPIDLY WITH
IRENE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RANGING UP TO NEARLY 7 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING 3 TO 5 INCHES.
...COASTAL AND TIDAL INFORMATION...
THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRYING PAN
TOWER AND THE SEAS WERE REPORTED AS HIGH AS 27 FEET. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 15 TO 20 FEET OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH-EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THEREFORE A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED.
BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PEOPLE ARE
URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE OCEAN DUE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND
UNDERTOWS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
CHECK ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
ON IRENE.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE IRENE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.
ANTHONY
858
WTNT33 KNHC 180253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
...IRENE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...LESSENING THE
THREAT TO NORTH CAROLINA...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FROM SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL REMAINING HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
ALL INTERESTS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD EXERCISE DUE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. WITH THIS TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...THE THREAT TO NORTH
CAROLINA IS DECREASING. IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES THE WARNINGS MAY
BE LOWERED SOMETIME ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 310 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN LOCATIONS WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL OCCUR NEAR THE PATH OF IRENE. IF IRENE CONTINUES MOVING IN ITS
CURRENT DIRECTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LESSEN.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CAROLINA...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN COASTAL NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...MONDAY.
JARVINEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
123
WTNT43 KNHC 172055
TCDAT3
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF
IRENE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN INTENSE BURST OF CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING WAS FOLLOWED BY A DROP IN MINIMUM PRESSURE...AN
IMPROVED RADAR DEPICTION AND A CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS YET...AND THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STARTED TO
MAKE THE ANTICIPATED RIGHTWARD TURN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
040/12. THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IF THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...THE
CENTER...AND ALL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 32.7N 78.5W 65 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 34.0N 77.2W 65 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 37.0N 72.9W 60 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 40.5N 64.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
WTNT7 Archive
372
WTNT23 KNHC 180300
TCMAT3
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1399
0300Z MON OCT 18 1999
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FROM SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL REMAINING HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
ALL INTERESTS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD EXERCISE DUE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 50SW 50NW
12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 90SW 70NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 77.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW
34 KT...270NE 270SE 50SW 50NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.3N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT...270NE 270SE 50SW 50NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 76.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
JARVINEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
860
WTNT73 KNHC 180255
SPFAT3
HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
40.3N 64.5W 15 7 X X 22 BOSTON MA 3 X X X 3
44.0N 54.5W X 9 X X 9 PORTLAND ME 2 X X X 2
CHARLESTON SC 2 X X X 2 BAR HARBOR ME 2 2 X X 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC 99 X X X 99 EASTPORT ME 2 3 X X 5
WILMINGTON NC 99 X X X 99 ST JOHN NB 1 4 X X 5
MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X 5 X X 5
CAPE HATTERAS NC 63 X X X 63 YARMOUTH NS 4 5 X X 9
NORFOLK VA 15 X X X 15 HALIFAX NS 1 9 X X 10
OCEAN CITY MD 9 X X X 9 SABLE ISLAND NS X 14 X X 14
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 4 X X X 4 SYDNEY NS X 9 X X 9
NEW YORK CITY NY 3 X X X 3 EDDY POINT NS X 10 X X 10
MONTAUK POINT NY 5 X X X 5 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 6 X X 6
PROVIDENCE RI 4 X X X 4 BURGEO NFLD X 6 X X 6
NANTUCKET MA 8 X X X 8 ILE ST PIERRE X 7 X X 7
HYANNIS MA 7 X X X 7 CAPE RACE NFLD X 4 X X 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
JARVINEN
WTNT7 Archive
*********************************************** 10-18-99 ********************************
410
WTNT33 KNHC 181451
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
...IRENE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AS A THREAT TO NORTH ATLANTIC
MARITIME INTERESTS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES..390 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET ISLAND MASSACHUSETTS.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IRENE
TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 315 MILES...510 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...37.8 N... 69.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT3 Archive
624
WTNT43 KNHC 181434
TCDAT3
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/35. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AS
WELL AS OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS IRENE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD
IN A FLOW OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW IRENE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND
TRANSFORMING INTO A HUGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATOPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ALTHOUGH IRENE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
...THERE IS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
THE WIND SPEED IS ASSUMED TO BE NEAR 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERSISTENCE FROM SIX HOURS AGO. AS IRENE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...IT COULD RETAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES NORHTEAST TO EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 37.8N 69.9W 90 KTS
12HR VT 19/0000Z 41.0N 63.0W 80 KTS
24HR VT 19/1200Z 46.0N 50.0W 65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 20/0000Z 50.0N 37.0W 65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1200Z 51.0N 30.0W 65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
384
WTNT23 KNHC 181440
TCMAT3
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1399
1500Z MON OCT 18 1999
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 69.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 34 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT.......125NE 150SE 40SW 30NW
34 KT.......250NE 275SE 125SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..300NE 325SE 125SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 69.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 72.3W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
50 KT...125NE 150SE 40SW 30NW
34 KT...250NE 275SE 125SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 46.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW
50 KT...100NE 250SE 250SW 100NW
34 KT...150NE 350SE 350SW 150NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW
50 KT...100NE 250SE 250SW 100NW
34 KT...150NE 350SE 350SW 150NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 69.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT...100NE 250SE 250SW 100NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
WTNT2 Archive
804
WTNT73 KNHC 181453
SPFAT3
HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
46.0N 50.0W 14 6 X X 20 EDDY POINT NS 4 X X X 4
50.0N 37.0W X 9 4 X 13 PTX BASQUES NFLD 2 X X X 2
51.0N 30.0W X 1 7 X 8 BURGEO NFLD 4 X X X 4
HALIFAX NS 2 X X X 2 ILE ST PIERRE 9 X X X 9
SABLE ISLAND NS 16 X X X 16 CAPE RACE NFLD 16 1 X X 17
SYDNEY NS 4 X X X 4 HIBERNIA OILFLD 6 12 X X 18
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
*********************************************** 10-19-99 ********************************
673
WWCA31 TJSJ 191950
HLSSJU
PRZ001>005-006-007-
AMZ750-755-770-773-775-192300-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE JOSE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE OCT 19 1999
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
...SMALL CRAFT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER THAT A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE IMPLEMENTING HURRICANE
MITIGATION PLANS...AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON
HURRICANE JOSE.
CONTINUE PREPARATIONS NOW...SUCH AS STOCKING UP ON EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES. THIS INCLUDES NON-PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER SUFFICIENT FOR
3 TO 5 DAYS...BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...AND FIRST AID
KITS. CANDLES ARE NOT RECOMMENDED SINCE THEY BECOME A FIRE HAZARD.
FILL YOUR VEHICLE WITH GAS...AND KEEP CASH ON HAND.
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO RECEIVER...BUY ONE FROM ANY
LOCAL RADIO OR ELECTRONICS STORE. IF YOU LIVE IN A BUILDING SUBJECT
TO SEVERE WIND DAMAGE...YOU SHOULD HAVE A PLAN AND BE READY TO MOVE
TO A SAFER LOCATION. YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS CAN PROVIDE YOU
WITH THE LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE IMPLEMENTING HURRICANE PLANS. ANCHOR
AND SECURE YOUR VESSELS IN HURRICANE SAFE HARBORS...OR EVACUATE THEM
TO A SAFE AREA. DO NOT PLAN TO RIDE OUT THE HURRICANE ONBOARD YOUR
VESSEL.
...PROTECTIVE ACTIONS...
PEOPLE WHO NEED EXTRA TIME TO COMPLETE ANY OUTSIDE PREPARATION
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE
PROTECTION OF BOATS...REMOVING OUTSIDE DEBRIS AND CHECKING OR
INSTALLING SHUTTERS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250
KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 430 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 530 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. JOSE IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992 MB...OR 29.29 INCHES.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TO 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. REMEMBER...SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
...FORECAST CONDITIONS...
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR GUADALOUPE.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORRATE TONIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST TRAJECTORY OF HURRICANE
JOSE WILL TAKE ITS CENTER OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 11 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVER VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY
MORNING AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
MEANS THAT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WILL
BEGIN EXPERIENCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMEMBER THAT FORECAST
TRACKS CAN HAVE LARGE ERRORS BEYOND 36 HOURS.
...RAINFALL...
EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...BRINGING PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE JOSE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
...STORM TIDES...
SURF AND TIDES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. VERY HIGH SURF...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LARGE BREAKING WAVES COMBINE WITH
ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH TIDE TO PRODUCE THESE HIGH SEAS.
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX FOR THURSDAY:
3:42 AM AND 4:53 PM
TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THURSDAY:
5:41 AM AND 6:09 PM
...MARINE INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL START TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT DETERIORATION TONIGHT AS STEADY
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KTS BLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
LOCAL WATERS. A SIGNFICANT INCREASE IN SWELLS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OUT TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE JOSE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE JOSE ON
RADIO...TELEVISION...NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE FOLLOWING WEB
SITES...
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST OFFICE...
HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED 6 PM THIS EVENING.
GROSS
© 1999 FIU High Performance Database Research Center