INFORMATION
ADV LAT LON DATE/TIME WIND PR STATUS 1 11.4 -81.1 10/28/21 Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION #15 ...formed 2 11.7 -81.7 10/29/03 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2A 11.7 -82.0 10/29/06 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 11.8 -82.2 10/29/09 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3A 12.5 -82.0 10/29/12 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 13.0 -82.3 10/29/15 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4A 13.5 -82.5 10/29/18 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 13.6 -83.2 10/29/21 Z 35 999 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...reclassified 5A 13.8 -83.6 10/30/00 Z 35 999 TROPICAL STORM 6 13.9 -83.8 10/30/03 Z 30 1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...downgraded 7 14.5 -84.6 10/30/09 Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 8 14.3 -85.0 10/30/15 Z 25 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 9 14.9 -85.8 10/30/21 Z 25 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 10 16.9 -87.2 10/31/03 Z 25 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...offshore 11 18.9 -88.4 10/31/09 Z 25 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...onshore 12 19.3 -88.2 10/31/15 Z 25 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 13 19.5 -89.4 10/31/21 Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 14 20.2 -89.9 11/01/03 Z 20 1011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 15 20.6 -89.6 11/01/09 Z 20 1011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 16 20.8 -89.5 11/01/15 Z 20 1011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...inland 17 21.1 -89.4 11/01/21 Z 20 1012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...last WIND is in knots PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)
SUMMARY
summary not available...
*********************************************** 10-28-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 10-29-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 10-30-99 ********************************
no data available...
*********************************************** 11-01-99 ********************************
WTNT35 KNHC 011536 COR
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR REPEAT SECTION...MOVEMENT...
...KATRINA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA MEXICO...COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS
KATRINA WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36
HOURS. WHILE THIS LESSENS THE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AS THE MOISTURE FROM KATRINA BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...20.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM EST.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT25 KNHC 011534 COR
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1599
1500Z MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR MOTION..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 89.6W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.7N 88.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W...DISSIPATING
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 89.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT35 KNHC 011501 COR
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR REPEAT SECTION...INITIAL POSITION...
...KATRINA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA MEXICO...COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS
KATRINA WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36
HOURS. WHILE THIS LESSENS THE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AS THE MOISTURE FROM KATRINA BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...20.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM EST.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT75 KNHC 011459 COR
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM EST THU NOV 4 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.6N 86.2W 34 1 X X 35 MIAMI FL X 7 X X 7
23.5N 83.5W 7 17 X X 24 W PALM BEACH FL X 4 X X 4
MUCF 221N 805W X 6 X X 6 FT PIERCE FL X 3 X X 3
MUSN 216N 826W 2 14 X X 16 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 X X 2
MUHA 230N 824W 2 18 X X 20 KEY WEST FL X 17 X X 17
MUAN 219N 850W 25 4 X X 29 MARCO ISLAND FL X 11 X X 11
MMCZ 205N 869W 37 X X X 37 FT MYERS FL X 8 X X 8
MYGF 266N 787W X 2 X X 2 VENICE FL X 6 X X 6
MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 3 X X 3
MARATHON FL X 13 X X 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE
C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED
D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
GUINEY
WTNT25 KNHC 011457 COR
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1599
1500Z MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 89.6W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.7N 88.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W...DISSIPATING
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 89.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT35 KNHC 011448
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...KATRINA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA MEXICO...COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS
KATRINA WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36
HOURS. WHILE THIS LESSENS THE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AS THE MOISTURE FROM KATRINA BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...20.9 N... 89.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM EST.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT35 KNHC 011444
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...KATRINA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA MEXICO...COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS
KATRINA WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36
HOURS. WHILE THIS LESSENS THE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AS THE MOISTURE FROM KATRINA BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...20.9 N... 89.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM EST.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT75 KNHC 011443
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM EST THU NOV 4 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.6N 86.2W 34 1 X X 35 MIAMI FL X 7 X X 7
23.5N 83.5W 7 17 X X 24 W PALM BEACH FL X 4 X X 4
MUCF 221N 805W X 6 X X 6 FT PIERCE FL X 3 X X 3
MUSN 216N 826W 2 14 X X 16 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 X X 2
MUHA 230N 824W 2 18 X X 20 KEY WEST FL X 17 X X 17
MUAN 219N 850W 25 4 X X 29 MARCO ISLAND FL X 11 X X 11
MMCZ 205N 869W 37 X X X 37 FT MYERS FL X 8 X X 8
MYGF 266N 787W X 2 X X 2 VENICE FL X 6 X X 6
MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 3 X X 3
MARATHON FL X 13 X X 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE
C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED
D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
GUINEY
WTNT25 KNHC 011441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1599
1500Z MON NOV 01 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 89.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 89.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 89.6W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.7N 88.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W...DISSIPATING
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 89.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT25 KNHC 010840
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1599
0900Z MON NOV 01 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 89.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 89.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 89.7W
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.4N 89.3W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.5N 87.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.4N 84.9W...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 89.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
JARVINEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
WTNT75 KNHC 010839
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST THU NOV 4 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.5N 87.3W 33 X X X 33 MUAN 219N 850W 7 16 X X 23
23.4N 84.9W 4 18 X X 22 MMCZ 205N 869W 22 2 X X 24
MUSN 216N 826W X 5 X X 5 MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99
MUHA 230N 824W X 5 X X 5 KEY WEST FL X 2 X X 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE
C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
JARVINEN
WTNT35 KNHC 010838
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...KATRINA REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...THREAT TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DECREASING...
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM...SOUTH OF MERIDA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS KATRINA MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THE
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS LESSENS THE THREAT TO THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...20.6 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM EST.
JARVINEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
This data is from the IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network)
887
WTNT35 KNHC 012043
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...KATRINA DISSIPATING...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KATRINA IS
BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY.
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MERIDA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING...THE COMBINATION OF KATRINAS
REMNANTS...A MOIST FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND A FRONTAL ZONE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...21.1 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KATRINA...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
PASCH
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
WTNT3 Archive
144
WTNT45 KNHC 012045
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 01 1999
THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND THE CENTER IS HARD TO
IDENTIFY...EVEN ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. KATRINA IS BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE REDEVELOPMENT.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SIMILAR...HOWEVER SINCE THE CENTER IS
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO FIND RIGHT NOW...NO POSITIONS ARE GIVEN BEYOND
24 HOURS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINAS REMNANTS AND A MOIST TROPICAL FLOW
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE...STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 21.1N 89.4W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.7N 87.6W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 02/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
NHC Model Suite Guidance and GFDL Model Guidance (from NOAA ARL)
(These products should not be used in place of the Official NHC forecast above.)
WTNT4 Archive
598
WTNT25 KNHC 012042
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1599
2100Z MON NOV 01 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 89.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...DISSIPATING
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 89.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.7N 87.6W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KATRINA.
PASCH
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
WTNT2 Archive
309
WTNT75 KNHC 011459 COR
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM EST THU NOV 4 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.6N 86.2W 34 1 X X 35 MIAMI FL X 7 X X 7
23.5N 83.5W 7 17 X X 24 W PALM BEACH FL X 4 X X 4
MUCF 221N 805W X 6 X X 6 FT PIERCE FL X 3 X X 3
MUSN 216N 826W 2 14 X X 16 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 X X 2
MUHA 230N 824W 2 18 X X 20 KEY WEST FL X 17 X X 17
MUAN 219N 850W 25 4 X X 29 MARCO ISLAND FL X 11 X X 11
MMCZ 205N 869W 37 X X X 37 FT MYERS FL X 8 X X 8
MYGF 266N 787W X 2 X X 2 VENICE FL X 6 X X 6
MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 3 X X 3
MARATHON FL X 13 X X 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE
C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED
D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
GUINEY
WTNT7 Archive
*********************************************** 11-02-99 ********************************
© 1999 FIU High Performance Database Research Center