INFORMATION
ADV LAT LON DATE/TIME WIND PR STATUS 1 16.5 -81.5 11/13/21 Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION #16 ...formed 2 15.9 -80.6 11/14/03 Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 15.9 -79.8 11/14/09 Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 15.9 -79.5 11/14/15 Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 16.4 -79.3 11/14/19 Z 55 992 TROPICAL STORM Lenny ...reclassified, special 6 16.4 -78.9 11/14/21 Z 60 988 TROPICAL STORM 6A 16.2 -78.6 11/15/00 Z 70 988 HURRICANE...reclassified 7 16.1 -78.3 11/15/03 Z 70 988 HURRICANE 7A 15.6 -77.6 11/15/06 Z 70 988 HURRICANE 8 15.4 -77.1 11/15/09 Z 85 971 HURRICANE 8A 15.4 -76.7 11/15/12 Z 85 971 HURRICANE 9 15.0 -76.2 11/15/15 Z 85 971 HURRICANE 9A 14.8 -74.9 11/15/18 Z 85 983 HURRICANE 10 14.90 -74.10 11/15/21 Z 75 984 HURRICANE 10A 15.00 -73.50 11/16/00 Z 75 982 HURRICANE 11 15.20 -73.00 11/16/03 Z 70 982 HURRICANE 11A 15.20 -72.10 11/16/06 Z 75 977 HURRICANE 12 15.20 -71.50 11/16/09 Z 85 971 HURRICANE 12A 15.20 -70.60 11/16/12 Z 85 971 HURRICANE 13 15.30 -69.80 11/16/15 Z 85 973 HURRICANE 13A 15.40 -69.10 11/16/18 Z 85 973 HURRICANE 14 15.80 -68.20 11/16/21 Z 100 965 HURRICANE 14A 15.90 -67.60 11/17/00 Z 100 960 HURRICANE 15 16.20 -67.00 11/17/03 Z 100 958 HURRICANE 15A 16.30 -66.70 11/17/05 Z 100 958 HURRICANE 15B 16.50 -66.20 11/17/07 Z 105 952 HURRICANE 16 16.70 -66.00 11/17/09 Z 110 950 HURRICANE 16A 16.80 -65.70 11/17/11 Z 110 949 HURRICANE 16B 16.90 -65.40 11/17/13 Z 115 948 HURRICANE 17 17.10 -65.10 11/17/15 Z 115 942 HURRICANE 17A 17.20 -64.80 11/17/17 Z 120 933 HURRICANE 17B 17.50 -64.70 11/17/19 Z 130 936 HURRICANE 18 17.6 -64.3 11/17/21 Z 130 934 HURRICANE 18A 17.7 -64.2 11/17/23 Z 130 929 HURRICANE 18B 17.7 -64.1 11/18/01 Z 130 939 HURRICANE 19 17.7 -64.1 11/18/03 Z 125 939 HURRICANE 19A 17.70 -64.00 11/18/05 Z 125 944 HURRICANE 19B 17.70 -63.80 11/18/07 Z 125 944 HURRICANE 20 17.80 -63.60 11/18/09 Z 125 947 HURRICANE 20A 17.80 -63.60 11/18/11 Z 115 951 HURRICANE 20B 17.80 -63.60 11/18/13 Z 115 952 HURRICANE 21 17.80 -63.60 11/18/15 Z 115 952 HURRICANE 21A 17.90 -63.20 11/18/17 Z 115 955 HURRICANE 21B 18.00 -63.20 11/18/19 Z 115 966 HURRICANE 22 18.10 -63.10 11/18/21 Z 105 966 HURRICANE 22A 18.10 -63.10 11/19/00 Z 100 975 HURRICANE 23 18.00 -62.90 11/19/03 Z 95 978 HURRICANE 23A 18.00 -62.90 11/19/06 Z 95 978 HURRICANE 24 18.10 -62.80 11/19/09 Z 85 982 HURRICANE 24A 17.90 63.00 11/19/12 Z 80 986 HURRICANE 25 18.00 -62.80 11/19/15 Z 80 986 HURRICANE 25A 17.50 -62.50 11/19/18 Z 65 987 HURRICANE 26 17.50 -62.20 11/19/21 Z 60 994 TROPICAL STORM...downgraded 26A 17.40 -61.90 11/20/00 Z 60 994 TROPICAL STORM 27 17.10 -61.80 11/20/03 Z 60 995 TROPICAL STORM 27A 17.10 -61.30 11/20/06 Z 50 999 TROPICAL STORM 28 16.90 -60.90 11/20/09 Z 50 995 TROPICAL STORM 29 16.00 -59.70 11/20/15 Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM 30 15.60 -59.30 11/20/21 Z 45 998 TROPICAL STORM 31 15.50 -58.90 11/21/03 Z 40 998 TROPICAL STORM 32 16.60 -57.80 11/21/09 Z 30 998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...downgraded 33 17.60 -56.60 11/21/15 Z 30 1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34 18.30 -56.10 11/21/21 Z 25 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...last WIND is in knots PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)
SUMMARY
summary not available...
********************* 11-13-99 ********************************
no data available...
********************* 11-14-99 ********************************
no data available...
********************* 11-15-99 ********************************
no data available...
********************* 11-16-99 ********************************
no data available...
********************* 11-17-99 ********************************
WTNT31 KNHC 180253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATF LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA...ABOUT XXX
MILES...RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
WTNT21 KNHC 180250
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATF LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT QUASI-STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT....... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 64.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 180246
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.4N 62.5W 35 1 X X 36 TIST 183N 650W 99 X X X 99
20.6N 61.4W 12 14 1 1 28 TJPS 180N 666W X 2 2 4 8
22.0N 60.5W 1 13 7 2 23 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 1 1 1 1 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 3 2 3 11
TFFR 163N 615W 9 1 1 1 12 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TAPA 171N 618W 20 1 1 X 22 ST THOMAS VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 38 X X X 38 SAN JUAN PR 3 3 2 3 11
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 2 2 4 8
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180156 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRERCTED POSITION
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING LENNY VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AT 800 PM ST CROIX EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 48 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE
PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180138
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.67 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING LENNY VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AT 800 PM ST CROIX EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 48 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE
PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180105
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT
HARD BY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
AT 9 PM AST...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON SABA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 9 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 172306
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT
HARD BY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
HURRICANE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
AT 7 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETEORIATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS IN ST. CROIX
RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...130 KPH.
THE LATEST ESTMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. XSAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 7 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172233 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO FORWARD SPEED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172231
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO FORWARD SPEED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172220
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 92 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 172048
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z WED NOV 17 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 64.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT.......100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 64.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 64.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 63.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 64.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 172043
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.7N 62.3W 33 X X 1 34 TIST 183N 650W 99 X X X 99
21.0N 61.5W 15 6 2 1 24 TJPS 180N 666W X 4 2 3 9
22.5N 60.5W 1 11 4 3 19 MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 2 3
TFFF 146N 610W X 1 X 1 2 TJSJ 184N 661W 2 4 3 2 11
TDPR 153N 614W 1 1 2 1 5 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 3 3
TFFR 163N 615W 6 3 1 1 11 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3
TAPA 171N 618W 19 1 1 X 21 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 41 X X X 41 ST THOMAS VI 99 X X X 99
TNCM 181N 631W 58 X X X 58 SAN JUAN PR 2 4 3 2 11
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 4 2 3 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 172041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT HARD BY
SEVERE HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX OR 85 MILES...135 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN IN THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THERE ARE REPORTS FROM SABA OF GUSTS TO 60
MPH...97 KPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM AST AND 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171931
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE LENNY STRENGTHENED...REACHING 150 MPH WINDS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 300 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST
...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...OR 27.64 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 6
TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM THIS EVENING.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 171854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...LENNY STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE...REACHES 150 MPH WINDS...NORTHERN
EYEWALL NEAR ST. CROIX...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
AT 3 PM AST...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY
PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST...
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR OR A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE
LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BE A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ST. CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 83 MPH...133 KPH AND GUSTS TO 112 MPH...180 KPH. ST. JOHN JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH...138 KPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 64.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171729
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
127 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE LENNY STILL STRENGTHENING....
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...OR 27.55 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY CONTINUES TO BE A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST REPORTED A GUST TO 88 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHNS...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ESPECIALLY IN THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS
ACROSS THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET
POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGHT
GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 171655
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...LENNY REACHES 140 MPH WINDS AND STRENGTHENING...ALL PREPARATIONS
AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY
PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR OR A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE
LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ST. CROIX JUST REPORTED A GUST TO 88 MPH
...140 KPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...17.2 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171553 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-171800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED TYPOS
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
...ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...OR 27.81 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. HURRICANE
LENNY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY ...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IN
THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN INCREASING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO
...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING ...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STORM
SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171542
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO
SOUTH TO SALINAS IN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
...ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...OR 27.81 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. HURRICANE
LENNY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY ...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IN
THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN INCREASING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO
...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING ...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STORM
SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 NOON THIS MORNING.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 171459
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.0N 62.5W 33 1 X X 34 TNCM 181N 631W 46 X X X 46
20.3N 61.0W 9 10 2 1 22 TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99
22.0N 59.5W X 9 6 4 19 TIST 183N 650W 35 X X X 35
TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 1 3 TJPS 180N 666W 3 3 2 1 9
TFFF 146N 610W X 3 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 8 2 2 X 12
TDPR 153N 614W 2 5 1 1 9 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TFFR 163N 615W 12 3 1 1 17 ST THOMAS VI 35 X X X 35
TAPA 171N 618W 24 1 X 1 26 SAN JUAN PR 8 2 2 X 12
TKPK 173N 627W 41 X X X 41 PONCE PR 3 3 2 1 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/17/99 TIME: 22:22:55
National Weather Service
WTNT31 KNHC 180259 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...CORRECTION FOR PUERTO RICO WARNING SECTION AND WIND SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA IN THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATF LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA...ABOUT XXX
MILES...RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 180250
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATF LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT QUASI-STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT....... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 64.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 180246
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.4N 62.5W 35 1 X X 36 TIST 183N 650W 99 X X X 99
20.6N 61.4W 12 14 1 1 28 TJPS 180N 666W X 2 2 4 8
22.0N 60.5W 1 13 7 2 23 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 1 1 1 1 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 3 2 3 11
TFFR 163N 615W 9 1 1 1 12 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TAPA 171N 618W 20 1 1 X 22 ST THOMAS VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 38 X X X 38 SAN JUAN PR 3 3 2 3 11
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 2 2 4 8
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180156 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRERCTED POSITION
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING LENNY VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AT 800 PM ST CROIX EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 48 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE
PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180138
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.67 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING LENNY VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AT 800 PM ST CROIX EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 48 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE
PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180105
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT
HARD BY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
AT 9 PM AST...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON SABA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 9 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 172306
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT
HARD BY EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
HURRICANE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
AT 7 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETEORIATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS IN ST. CROIX
RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...130 KPH.
THE LATEST ESTMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. XSAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 7 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172233 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO FORWARD SPEED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172231
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO FORWARD SPEED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 172220
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180100-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 68 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 88 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 92 MPH. THE MEASURED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...OR 27.58 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH. SABA EAST OF ST. CROIX
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 5
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
PUERTO REAL: 347 AM THURSDAY MORNING
MAYAGUEZ: 350 AM THURSDAY MORNING
GUANICA: 503 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM THIS EVENING.
LASKOSKY/ESTRADA
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 172048
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z WED NOV 17 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 64.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT.......100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 64.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 64.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 63.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 64.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 172043
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.7N 62.3W 33 X X 1 34 TIST 183N 650W 99 X X X 99
21.0N 61.5W 15 6 2 1 24 TJPS 180N 666W X 4 2 3 9
22.5N 60.5W 1 11 4 3 19 MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 2 3
TFFF 146N 610W X 1 X 1 2 TJSJ 184N 661W 2 4 3 2 11
TDPR 153N 614W 1 1 2 1 5 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 3 3
TFFR 163N 615W 6 3 1 1 11 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3
TAPA 171N 618W 19 1 1 X 21 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 41 X X X 41 ST THOMAS VI 99 X X X 99
TNCM 181N 631W 58 X X X 58 SAN JUAN PR 2 4 3 2 11
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 4 2 3 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 172041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT HARD BY
SEVERE HURRICANE LENNY...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX OR 85 MILES...135 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN IN THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THERE ARE REPORTS FROM SABA OF GUSTS TO 60
MPH...97 KPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM AST AND 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171931
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE LENNY STRENGTHENED...REACHING 150 MPH WINDS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 300 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST
...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...OR 27.64 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
112 MPH. ST JOHN REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 6
TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM THIS EVENING.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 171854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...LENNY STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE...REACHES 150 MPH WINDS...NORTHERN
EYEWALL NEAR ST. CROIX...
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
AT 3 PM AST...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY
PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST...
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR OR A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE
LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BE A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ST. CROIX JUST EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 83 MPH...133 KPH AND GUSTS TO 112 MPH...180 KPH. ST. JOHN JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 86 MPH...138 KPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 64.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171729
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
127 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...HURRICANE LENNY STILL STRENGTHENING....
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST
...ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...OR 27.55 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
HURRICANE LENNY CONTINUES TO BE A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES.
ST CROIX JUST REPORTED A GUST TO 88 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHNS...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS
ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ESPECIALLY IN THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS
ACROSS THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET
POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGHT
GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 171655
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...LENNY REACHES 140 MPH WINDS AND STRENGTHENING...ALL PREPARATIONS
AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY
PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR OR A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE
LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ST. CROIX JUST REPORTED A GUST TO 88 MPH
...140 KPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...17.2 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171553 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-171800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED TYPOS
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN
PUERTO RICO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO SOUTH
THROUGH PONCE...INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
...ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...OR 27.81 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. HURRICANE
LENNY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY ...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IN
THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN INCREASING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO
...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING ...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STORM
SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 171542
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-172000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARECIBO
SOUTH TO SALINAS IN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO
RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON SOUTH TO CABO ROJO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM CABO ROJO TO LAJAS EAST THROUGH MAUNABO AND
NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA
...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 900 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
...ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEIBA
HURRICANE LENNY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...OR 27.81 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. HURRICANE
LENNY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REMEMBER...THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY ...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
REMEMBER ALSO...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IN
THE VIEQUES...VIRGIN...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINING CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 FEET IN INCREASING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO
...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASING SURF...COASTAL FLOODING ...AND BEACH EROSION
PRODUCED FROM LARGE SOUTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STORM
SURGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE PATH OF LENNY
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 353 PM THIS AFTERNOON
PUERTO REAL: 310 PM THIS AFTERNOON
MAYAGUEZ: 313 PM THIS AFTERNOON
GUANICA: 422 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 302 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 407 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S .VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 NOON THIS MORNING.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 171459
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.0N 62.5W 33 1 X X 34 TNCM 181N 631W 46 X X X 46
20.3N 61.0W 9 10 2 1 22 TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99
22.0N 59.5W X 9 6 4 19 TIST 183N 650W 35 X X X 35
TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 1 3 TJPS 180N 666W 3 3 2 1 9
TFFF 146N 610W X 3 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 8 2 2 X 12
TDPR 153N 614W 2 5 1 1 9 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TFFR 163N 615W 12 3 1 1 17 ST THOMAS VI 35 X X X 35
TAPA 171N 618W 24 1 X 1 26 SAN JUAN PR 8 2 2 X 12
TKPK 173N 627W 41 X X X 41 PONCE PR 3 3 2 1 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
****************** 11-18-99 ********************************
DATE: 11/18/99 TIME: 10:00:27
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 181457
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.5N 62.5W 40 X 1 X 41 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.3N 61.8W 22 3 2 1 28 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
20.0N 61.0W 7 11 3 3 24 TISX 177N 648W 33 X X X 33
TGPY 120N 618W X X X 2 2 TIST 183N 650W 28 X X 1 29
TBPB 131N 595W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W 2 2 1 4 9
TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 3 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 8 1 2 2 13
TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 4 6 ST CROIX VI 33 X X X 33
TFFF 146N 610W 1 2 2 4 9 ST THOMAS VI 28 X X 1 29
TDPR 153N 614W 4 4 2 4 14 SAN JUAN PR 8 1 2 2 13
TFFR 163N 615W 16 2 2 1 21 PONCE PR 2 2 1 4 9
TAPA 171N 618W 30 X 1 X 31
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IT IS STILL A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS FROM SABA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 98 MPH...157 KPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY BARELY MOVING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER
...A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181208
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
809 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO
THROUGH FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH
LUQUILLO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 700 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951
MB...OR 28.08 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW NEAR
135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. A SPOTTER
IN ST CROIX...RECENTLY REPORTED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE
CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
THIS MORNING...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING
...WITH ISOLATED HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1000 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181056 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY TIME...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 7 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181053
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181050
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181023
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO
THROUGH FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH
LUQUILLO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY IS DRIFTING EAST...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...OR
27.86 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT 503 AM AST...ST. THOMAS
EXPERIENCED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE
CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER THIS
MORNING...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING
...WITH ISOLATED HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180853 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECTED WARNING SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLAND OF SABA SHORTLY AND OVER ST. MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.86 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 180850 COR
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECT WARNING SECTION...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 18 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 63.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 63.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 180840
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 62.6W 42 X X X 42 TIST 183N 650W 17 2 2 1 22
19.1N 61.9W 23 2 2 1 28 TJPS 180N 666W 1 5 3 3 12
20.0N 61.0W 5 10 5 3 23 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TFFF 146N 610W 1 1 1 1 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 6 3 3 15
TDPR 153N 614W 5 3 1 1 10 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W 17 2 1 1 21 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W 31 1 X X 32 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 56 X X X 56 ST THOMAS VI 17 2 2 1 22
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR 3 6 3 3 15
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR 1 5 3 3 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 180838
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z THU NOV 18 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 18 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 63.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 63.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLAND OF SABA SHORTLY AND OVER ST. MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.86 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180733
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST..SOUTH AND
NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 300 AM AST...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST
...ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THE
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...OR 27.88 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT 156 AM AST...AM ST. THOMAS
EXPERIENCED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...SOME COASTAL FLOODING...AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THIS MORNING AND 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 410 AM THIS MORNING AND 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 235 AM THIS MORNING AND 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 340 AM THIS MORNING AND 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SHOULD RESUME ITS NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX
...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER THIS MORNING...AND CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180706 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECT MOTION IN REPEAT SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED AT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH AT ST.
THOMAS AND A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH AT ST. MAARTEN.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180647
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED AT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH AT ST.
THOMAS AND A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH AT ST. MAARTEN.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180551
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES..
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN FFFECT FOR THE THE WEST..SOUTH
AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. THE MEASURED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 944 MB...OR 27.88 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS AND MOUNTAINS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT
1217 AM ST. THOMAS EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THIS MORNING AND 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 410 AM THIS MORNING AND 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 235 AM THIS MORNING AND 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 340 AM THIS MORNING AND 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
BEFORE TO MOVE MORE TO A NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 AM THIS MORNING.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180505 COR
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180700-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTION
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES..
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN FFFECT FOR THE THE WEST..SOUTH
AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. THE MEASURED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS AND MOUNTAINS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT
1200 AM MIDNIGHT ST. CROIX AND ST. THOMAS EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
FAJARDO: 410 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
BEFORE TO MOVE MORE TO A NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 AM ON THURSDAY MORNING.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180505
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 1 AM AST...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THE LAST HOUR HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RELAYED FROM AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE REPORTS
OF ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KPH...ON FRENCH ST.
AND A GUST TO TO 101 MPH...163 KPH...ON SABA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 5 AM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180437
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180700-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN FFFECT FOR THE THE WEST..SOUTH
AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. THE MEASURED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS AND MOUNTAINS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT
1200 AM MIDNIGHT ST. CROIX AND ST. THOMAS EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
FAJARDO: 410 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
BEFORE TO RESUME A NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180259 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...CORRECTION FOR PUERTO RICO WARNING SECTION AND WIND SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA IN THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/18/99 TIME: 10:22:57
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 181459
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 63.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 181457
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.5N 62.5W 40 X 1 X 41 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.3N 61.8W 22 3 2 1 28 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
20.0N 61.0W 7 11 3 3 24 TISX 177N 648W 33 X X X 33
TGPY 120N 618W X X X 2 2 TIST 183N 650W 28 X X 1 29
TBPB 131N 595W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W 2 2 1 4 9
TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 3 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 8 1 2 2 13
TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 4 6 ST CROIX VI 33 X X X 33
TFFF 146N 610W 1 2 2 4 9 ST THOMAS VI 28 X X 1 29
TDPR 153N 614W 4 4 2 4 14 SAN JUAN PR 8 1 2 2 13
TFFR 163N 615W 16 2 2 1 21 PONCE PR 2 2 1 4 9
TAPA 171N 618W 30 X 1 X 31
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IT IS STILL A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS FROM SABA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 98 MPH...157 KPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY BARELY MOVING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER
...A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181208
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181400-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
809 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO
THROUGH FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH
LUQUILLO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 700 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951
MB...OR 28.08 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW NEAR
135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. A SPOTTER
IN ST CROIX...RECENTLY REPORTED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE
CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
THIS MORNING...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING
...WITH ISOLATED HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1000 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181056 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY TIME...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 7 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181053
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181050
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 7 AM AST...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL
OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LENNY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS
WEAKENED...IT IS STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181023
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO
THROUGH FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH
LUQUILLO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY IS DRIFTING EAST...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...OR
27.86 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT 503 AM AST...ST. THOMAS
EXPERIENCED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE
CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER THIS
MORNING...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING
...WITH ISOLATED HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180853 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECTED WARNING SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLAND OF SABA SHORTLY AND OVER ST. MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.86 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 180850 COR
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECT WARNING SECTION...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 18 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 63.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 63.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 180840
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 62.6W 42 X X X 42 TIST 183N 650W 17 2 2 1 22
19.1N 61.9W 23 2 2 1 28 TJPS 180N 666W 1 5 3 3 12
20.0N 61.0W 5 10 5 3 23 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TFFF 146N 610W 1 1 1 1 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 6 3 3 15
TDPR 153N 614W 5 3 1 1 10 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W 17 2 1 1 21 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W 31 1 X X 32 ST CROIX VI 99 X X X 99
TKPK 173N 627W 56 X X X 56 ST THOMAS VI 17 2 2 1 22
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR 3 6 3 3 15
TISX 177N 648W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR 1 5 3 3 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 180838
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z THU NOV 18 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 18 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 63.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 63.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLAND OF SABA SHORTLY AND OVER ST. MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.86 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180733
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181000-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO EAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCE TO MANATI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST..SOUTH AND
NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 300 AM AST...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST
...ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THE
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...OR 27.88 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT 156 AM AST...AM ST. THOMAS
EXPERIENCED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...SOME COASTAL FLOODING...AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THIS MORNING AND 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 410 AM THIS MORNING AND 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 235 AM THIS MORNING AND 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 340 AM THIS MORNING AND 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST FROM ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SHOULD RESUME ITS NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN ST CROIX
...SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER THIS MORNING...AND CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX
...WILL REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM THIS MORNING.
SEELEY
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180706 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...CORRECT MOTION IN REPEAT SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED AT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH AT ST.
THOMAS AND A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH AT ST. MAARTEN.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180647
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED AT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH AT ST.
THOMAS AND A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH AT ST. MAARTEN.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180551
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES..
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN FFFECT FOR THE THE WEST..SOUTH
AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. THE MEASURED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 944 MB...OR 27.88 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS AND MOUNTAINS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT
1217 AM ST. THOMAS EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THIS MORNING AND 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 410 AM THIS MORNING AND 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 235 AM THIS MORNING AND 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 340 AM THIS MORNING AND 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
BEFORE TO MOVE MORE TO A NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 AM THIS MORNING.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180505
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 1 AM AST...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THE LAST HOUR HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RELAYED FROM AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE REPORTS
OF ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KPH...ON FRENCH ST.
AND A GUST TO TO 101 MPH...163 KPH...ON SABA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 5 AM AST.
GUINEY
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 180437
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-180700-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO...
...A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN FFFECT FOR THE THE WEST..SOUTH
AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM MAUNABO NORTHEAST TO FAJARDO...AND FOR ALL THE
COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST
REMAIN IN PORT...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST
...ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
HURRICANE LENNY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. THE MEASURED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...OR 27.73 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS AND MOUNTAINS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. AT
1200 AM MIDNIGHT ST. CROIX AND ST. THOMAS EXPERIENCED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA... DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE THREAT OF
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY... MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
...WITH SEAS UP TO 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF LENNY. COASTAL RESIDENTS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH
EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 420 AM THURSDAY MORNING
FAJARDO: 410 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED: 337 AM THURSDAY MORNING
CHARLOTTE AMALIE: 404 AM THURSDAY MORNING
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
BEFORE TO RESUME A NORTHEAST TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER AND CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS
WELL AS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ST
CROIX.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM ON THURSDAY.
15
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 180259 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...CORRECTION FOR PUERTO RICO WARNING SECTION AND WIND SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA IN THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
GUINEY
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/18/99 TIME: 22:01:40
National Weather Service
WTNT31 KNHC 190257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY EYEING ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ANGUILLA.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. WINDS OF
100 MPH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING BY THE SHIP CAIT NAMARO
IN SIMSON BAY ST MAARTEN. AFTER PASSING OVER ST. MAARTEN...RECENT
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF LENNY IS NOW OVER ANGUILLA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.2 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 975 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 182352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY BATTERING ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF
ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME LATER TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A PORTION
OF THE EYE OF LENNY PASSED OVER ST. MAARTEN...AND WINDS OF 100 MPH
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED THERE BY THE SHIP CAIT NAMARO IN SIMPSONS
BAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 115 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 182056
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-190200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR LOCAL AREA...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE DISONTINUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE RIVERS IN
PUERTO RICO NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE FROM QUEBRADILLAS
SOUTH TO MARICAO EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SAN LORENZO AND NORTHEAST
TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO AND SOUTH TO MAUNABO...AND FOR
ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL
WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY NORTHEAST MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 966
MB...OR 28.52 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECRESED TO NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST AND NORTH FACING BEACHES...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 523 AM FRIDAY MORNING
517 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 513 AM FRIDAY MORNING
507 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
VIEQUES: 509 AM FRIDAY MORNING
503 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 355 AM FRIDAY MORNING
339 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 507 AM FRIDAY MORNING
501 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST THOMAS: 500 AM FRIDAY MORNING
444 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENT ISSUED FOR LENNY BY
THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 182042
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.0N 61.5W 31 1 X 1 33 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
19.7N 60.3W 12 10 2 1 25 TISX 177N 648W 72 X X X 72
21.0N 59.0W 1 11 7 2 21 TIST 183N 650W 94 X X X 94
TLPL 138N 610W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W X 1 1 3 5
TFFF 146N 610W 1 1 2 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 23 X X X 23
TDPR 153N 614W 3 4 1 2 10 ST CROIX VI 72 X X X 72
TFFR 163N 615W 16 2 1 X 19 ST THOMAS VI 94 X X X 94
TAPA 171N 618W 95 X X X 95 SAN JUAN PR 23 X X X 23
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 1 1 3 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 182039
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 63.3W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 60.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 63.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 182038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY BUT A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. THIS TRACK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE ARE REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE IN ST. MAARTEN WHERE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT LEAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED DURING MOST OF THE
DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 966 MB...28.52 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181856
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY BATTERING ST. MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES.
AT 3 PM AST...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ST MAARTEN IS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 966 MB
...28.52 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181651
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD...EYEWALL NEARING ST. MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES.
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN
...AND ANGUILLA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO
108 MPH...173 KPH AND ST. BARTHELEMY REPORTED GUSTS TO 124 MPH
...200 KPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181626
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1215 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...EXCEPT
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE FROM QUEBRADILLAS SOUTH TO
MARICAO EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SAN LORENZO AND NORTHEAST TO
FAJARDO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO AND SOUTH TO MAUNABO...AND FOR ALL
THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO....SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
ELSEWHERE...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952
MB...OR 28.11 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH
FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
523 AM FRIDAY MORNING
517 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
513 AM FRIDAY MORNING
507 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
VIEQUES: 415 PM THIS AFTERNOON
509 AM FRIDAY MORNING
503 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
355 AM FRIDAY MORNING
339 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 413 PM THIS AFTERNOON
507 AM FRIDAY MORNING
501 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST THOMAS: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
500 AM FRIDAY MORNING
444 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
DUE TO THE VERY SLOW TO NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF LENNY AND THE
WOBBLE OF THE STORM...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD VERY
CLOSE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 181459
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 63.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 181457
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.5N 62.5W 40 X 1 X 41 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.3N 61.8W 22 3 2 1 28 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
20.0N 61.0W 7 11 3 3 24 TISX 177N 648W 33 X X X 33
TGPY 120N 618W X X X 2 2 TIST 183N 650W 28 X X 1 29
TBPB 131N 595W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W 2 2 1 4 9
TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 3 4 TJSJ 184N 661W 8 1 2 2 13
TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 4 6 ST CROIX VI 33 X X X 33
TFFF 146N 610W 1 2 2 4 9 ST THOMAS VI 28 X X 1 29
TDPR 153N 614W 4 4 2 4 14 SAN JUAN PR 8 1 2 2 13
TFFR 163N 615W 16 2 2 1 21 PONCE PR 2 2 1 4 9
TAPA 171N 618W 30 X 1 X 31
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IT IS STILL A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS FROM SABA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 98 MPH...157 KPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/18/99 TIME: 22:23:33
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 190301
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.7N 62.2W 41 X X X 41 TIST 183N 650W 10 5 3 1 19
19.4N 61.4W 23 2 3 X 28 TJPS 180N 666W X 5 4 2 11
20.5N 60.0W 3 9 10 2 24 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TFFF 146N 610W X 1 X 1 2 TJSJ 184N 661W 1 7 4 1 13
TDPR 153N 614W 2 3 1 1 7 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W 10 3 2 X 15 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W 23 2 X X 25 ST CROIX VI 17 2 1 1 21
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 ST THOMAS VI 10 5 3 1 19
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR 1 7 4 1 13
TISX 177N 648W 17 2 1 1 21 PONCE PR X 5 4 2 11
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 190258
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 61.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 63.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY EYEING ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ANGUILLA.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. WINDS OF
100 MPH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING BY THE SHIP CAIT NAMARO
IN SIMSON BAY ST MAARTEN. AFTER PASSING OVER ST. MAARTEN...RECENT
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF LENNY IS NOW OVER ANGUILLA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.2 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 975 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 182352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY BATTERING ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF
ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME LATER TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A PORTION
OF THE EYE OF LENNY PASSED OVER ST. MAARTEN...AND WINDS OF 100 MPH
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED THERE BY THE SHIP CAIT NAMARO IN SIMPSONS
BAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 115 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 182056
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-190200-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR LOCAL AREA...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE DISONTINUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE RIVERS IN
PUERTO RICO NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE FROM QUEBRADILLAS
SOUTH TO MARICAO EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SAN LORENZO AND NORTHEAST
TO FAJARDO...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO AND SOUTH TO MAUNABO...AND FOR
ALL THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL
WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY NORTHEAST MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 966
MB...OR 28.52 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECRESED TO NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST AND NORTH FACING BEACHES...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 523 AM FRIDAY MORNING
517 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 513 AM FRIDAY MORNING
507 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
VIEQUES: 509 AM FRIDAY MORNING
503 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 355 AM FRIDAY MORNING
339 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 507 AM FRIDAY MORNING
501 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST THOMAS: 500 AM FRIDAY MORNING
444 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENT ISSUED FOR LENNY BY
THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 182042
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.0N 61.5W 31 1 X 1 33 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
19.7N 60.3W 12 10 2 1 25 TISX 177N 648W 72 X X X 72
21.0N 59.0W 1 11 7 2 21 TIST 183N 650W 94 X X X 94
TLPL 138N 610W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W X 1 1 3 5
TFFF 146N 610W 1 1 2 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 23 X X X 23
TDPR 153N 614W 3 4 1 2 10 ST CROIX VI 72 X X X 72
TFFR 163N 615W 16 2 1 X 19 ST THOMAS VI 94 X X X 94
TAPA 171N 618W 95 X X X 95 SAN JUAN PR 23 X X X 23
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 1 1 3 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 182039
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 63.3W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 60.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 75NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 63.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 60NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 182038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY BUT A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. THIS TRACK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE ARE REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE IN ST. MAARTEN WHERE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT LEAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED DURING MOST OF THE
DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 966 MB...28.52 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181856
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY BATTERING ST. MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES.
AT 3 PM AST...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ST MAARTEN IS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 966 MB
...28.52 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 3 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 181651
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD...EYEWALL NEARING ST. MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES.
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN
...AND ANGUILLA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO
108 MPH...173 KPH AND ST. BARTHELEMY REPORTED GUSTS TO 124 MPH
...200 KPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WWCA31 TJSJ 181626
HLSSJU
PRZ001>007-AMZ775-755-770-773-750-181800-
BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LENNY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1215 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...EXCEPT
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE FROM QUEBRADILLAS SOUTH TO
MARICAO EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SAN LORENZO AND NORTHEAST TO
FAJARDO...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM RINCON THROUGH FAJARDO AND SOUTH TO MAUNABO...AND FOR ALL
THE COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO....SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
ELSEWHERE...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...STORM UPDATE...
AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST
...ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX U.S.V.I.
...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS U.S.V.I
...ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES
...ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
LENNY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952
MB...OR 28.11 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...WIND INFORMATION...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.
...RAINFALL...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY WILL CONTINUE SPIRALING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MUCH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH UP TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE PROBABLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
...MARINE CONDITIONS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT. COASTAL RESIDENTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH
FACING BEACHES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH SURF...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
... IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN JUAN: 429 PM THIS AFTERNOON
523 AM FRIDAY MORNING
517 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FAJARDO: 419 PM THIS AFTERNOON
513 AM FRIDAY MORNING
507 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
VIEQUES: 415 PM THIS AFTERNOON
509 AM FRIDAY MORNING
503 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 321 PM THIS AFTERNOON
355 AM FRIDAY MORNING
339 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 413 PM THIS AFTERNOON
507 AM FRIDAY MORNING
501 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST THOMAS: 426 PM THIS AFTERNOON
500 AM FRIDAY MORNING
444 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...FORECAST TRACK...
ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE LENNY SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND ADJUSTMENTS.
DUE TO THE VERY SLOW TO NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF LENNY AND THE
WOBBLE OF THE STORM...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD VERY
CLOSE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE LENNY CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GROSS
WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA
...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 181459
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z THU NOV 18 1999
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW 70NW
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 63.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE 75SW 75NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
******************** 11-19-99 ********************************
DATE: 11/19/99 TIME: 10:01:42
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 191451
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 191444
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.5N 61.5W 32 1 X X 33 TISX 177N 648W 6 4 2 3 15
19.5N 60.5W 12 9 2 2 25 TIST 183N 650W 5 3 3 3 14
20.0N 59.5W 3 13 3 3 22 TJPS 180N 666W X 1 3 5 9
TVSV 131N 612W X 1 1 X 2 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TLPL 138N 610W 1 2 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W X 2 3 5 10
TFFF 146N 610W 5 3 1 1 10 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 12 2 1 1 16 ST CROIX VI 6 4 2 3 15
TFFR 163N 615W 23 1 1 X 25 ST THOMAS VI 5 3 3 3 14
TAPA 171N 618W 41 X X X 41 SAN JUAN PR X 2 3 5 10
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 1 3 5 9
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...TENACIOUS LENNY CONTINUES POUNDING ST. MAARTEN...DAMAGE APPEARS
TO BE SEVERE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST...BETWEEN ST.
MAARTEN AND ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. SOME
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY MEANDERING NEAR ST. MAARTEN...WEAKENS FURTHER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF
ST. MAARTEN. THIS IS ALSO JUST WEST OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. WITH THIS SLOW MOTION...THE
CENTER OF LENNY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER
THAN 95 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FURTHER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 63.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 190837
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 62.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 62.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 62.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 190834
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 61.9W 99 X X X 99 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
18.9N 61.0W 25 1 1 1 28 TISX 177N 648W 15 2 1 1 19
19.5N 60.0W 11 6 3 2 22 TIST 183N 650W 12 2 2 1 17
TBPB 131N 595W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W 1 3 2 3 9
TVSV 131N 612W X 1 1 1 3 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W X 3 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 3 2 3 11
TFFF 146N 610W 2 5 2 1 10 ST CROIX VI 15 2 1 1 19
TDPR 153N 614W 8 4 2 1 15 ST THOMAS VI 12 2 2 1 17
TFFR 163N 615W 19 2 1 1 23 SAN JUAN PR 3 3 2 3 11
TAPA 171N 618W 41 X X X 41 PONCE PR 1 3 2 3 9
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY AND ST.
MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMEY. THIS IS ALSO JUST EAST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. WITH THIS SLOW MOTION...THE CENTER
OF LENNY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS KEEPS LENNY A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER
THAN 100 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FURTHER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM. REPORTS FROM ST. MAARTEN INDICATE THE
WESTERN EYEWALL IS VERY NEAR THE ISLAND...WITH RAPID CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED OCCURRING AS THE EYE WOBBLES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190601 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER...
...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHELEMEY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. ST. MAARTEN
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GUSTS TO 104 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHELEMEY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. ST. MAARTEN
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GUSTS TO 104 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 190301
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.7N 62.2W 41 X X X 41 TIST 183N 650W 10 5 3 1 19
19.4N 61.4W 23 2 3 X 28 TJPS 180N 666W X 5 4 2 11
20.5N 60.0W 3 9 10 2 24 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TFFF 146N 610W X 1 X 1 2 TJSJ 184N 661W 1 7 4 1 13
TDPR 153N 614W 2 3 1 1 7 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W 10 3 2 X 15 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W 23 2 X X 25 ST CROIX VI 17 2 1 1 21
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 ST THOMAS VI 10 5 3 1 19
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR 1 7 4 1 13
TISX 177N 648W 17 2 1 1 21 PONCE PR X 5 4 2 11
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 190258
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 63.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 61.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 63.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999
...LENNY EYEING ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ANGUILLA.
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. WINDS OF
100 MPH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING BY THE SHIP CAIT NAMARO
IN SIMSON BAY ST MAARTEN. AFTER PASSING OVER ST. MAARTEN...RECENT
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF LENNY IS NOW OVER ANGUILLA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.2 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 975 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/19/99 TIME: 10:23:35
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 191451
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 191444
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.5N 61.5W 32 1 X X 33 TISX 177N 648W 6 4 2 3 15
19.5N 60.5W 12 9 2 2 25 TIST 183N 650W 5 3 3 3 14
20.0N 59.5W 3 13 3 3 22 TJPS 180N 666W X 1 3 5 9
TVSV 131N 612W X 1 1 X 2 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TLPL 138N 610W 1 2 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W X 2 3 5 10
TFFF 146N 610W 5 3 1 1 10 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 12 2 1 1 16 ST CROIX VI 6 4 2 3 15
TFFR 163N 615W 23 1 1 X 25 ST THOMAS VI 5 3 3 3 14
TAPA 171N 618W 41 X X X 41 SAN JUAN PR X 2 3 5 10
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X 1 3 5 9
TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...TENACIOUS LENNY CONTINUES POUNDING ST. MAARTEN...DAMAGE APPEARS
TO BE SEVERE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST...BETWEEN ST.
MAARTEN AND ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. SOME
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY MEANDERING NEAR ST. MAARTEN...WEAKENS FURTHER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF
ST. MAARTEN. THIS IS ALSO JUST WEST OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. WITH THIS SLOW MOTION...THE
CENTER OF LENNY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER
THAN 95 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FURTHER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 63.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 190837
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 62.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 62.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 62.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 190834
SPFAT1
HURRICANE LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 61.9W 99 X X X 99 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
18.9N 61.0W 25 1 1 1 28 TISX 177N 648W 15 2 1 1 19
19.5N 60.0W 11 6 3 2 22 TIST 183N 650W 12 2 2 1 17
TBPB 131N 595W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W 1 3 2 3 9
TVSV 131N 612W X 1 1 1 3 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W X 3 1 1 5 TJSJ 184N 661W 3 3 2 3 11
TFFF 146N 610W 2 5 2 1 10 ST CROIX VI 15 2 1 1 19
TDPR 153N 614W 8 4 2 1 15 ST THOMAS VI 12 2 2 1 17
TFFR 163N 615W 19 2 1 1 23 SAN JUAN PR 3 3 2 3 11
TAPA 171N 618W 41 X X X 41 PONCE PR 1 3 2 3 9
TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY AND ST.
MAARTEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMEY. THIS IS ALSO JUST EAST OF ST. MAARTEN.
LENNY IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. WITH THIS SLOW MOTION...THE CENTER
OF LENNY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ST. BARTHELEMEY...ST. MAARTEN...AND
ANGUILLA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS KEEPS LENNY A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER
THAN 100 MPH COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FURTHER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM. REPORTS FROM ST. MAARTEN INDICATE THE
WESTERN EYEWALL IS VERY NEAR THE ISLAND...WITH RAPID CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED OCCURRING AS THE EYE WOBBLES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
BEVEN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190601 COR
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER...
...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHELEMEY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. ST. MAARTEN
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GUSTS TO 104 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 190555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHELEMEY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST...OR OVER THE ISLAND
OF ST. BARTHELEMEY.
LENNY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. ST. MAARTEN
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GUSTS TO 104 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LENNY A STILL-DANGEROUS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SUSTAINED WINDS STRONGER THAN 110 MPH
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LENNY WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE
RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
BEVEN
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/19/99 TIME: 22:01:48
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 200246
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.1N 60.5W 44 X X X 44 TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99
18.0N 59.5W 18 4 2 1 25 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.0N 58.5W 3 12 3 3 21 TNCM 181N 631W 54 X X X 54
TBPB 131N 595W 4 3 1 X 8 TISX 177N 648W 2 3 1 1 7
TVSV 131N 612W 3 2 1 X 6 TIST 183N 650W 1 3 1 1 6
TLPL 138N 610W 9 2 1 X 12 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 1 1 3
TFFF 146N 610W 21 1 X X 22 ST CROIX VI 2 3 1 1 7
TDPR 153N 614W 41 1 X X 42 ST THOMAS VI 1 3 1 1 6
TFFR 163N 615W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR X 1 1 1 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY LINGERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS NEAR ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND STORM-FORCE
WINDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY. THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAS BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE. THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...SATURDAY.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 200231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 192351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY LINGERS OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...33 KM...NORTHWEST OF
ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...4 MPH...67 KM/HR...OR LESS...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LENNY. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N... 61.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 192025
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.0N 60.0W 32 1 X X 33 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.0N 59.0W 14 7 2 1 24 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
20.0N 58.0W 2 12 4 3 21 TISX 177N 648W X 3 2 2 7
TBPB 131N 595W X 1 1 X 2 TIST 183N 650W X 2 3 2 7
TVSV 131N 612W 1 1 X X 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X 1 2 3
TLPL 138N 610W 4 1 1 X 6 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 2 2 4
TFFF 146N 610W 12 1 X 1 14 ST CROIX VI X 3 2 2 7
TDPR 153N 614W 24 X X X 24 ST THOMAS VI X 2 3 2 7
TFFR 163N 615W 45 X X X 45 SAN JUAN PR X X 2 2 4
TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X X 1 2 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 192019
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z FRI NOV 19 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS. ALSO AT 5 PM
AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS.. 150E 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 62.2W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 192017
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...CAPRICIOUS LENNY RAPIDLY LOSING STRENGTH...MOVING
EASTWARD...WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS. ALSO AT 5 PM
AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT LENNY HAS
WEAKENED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BARBUDA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ANTIGUA REPORTED GUSTS TO 80 MPH...
128 KPH...EARLIER TODAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LENNY. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191738
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY WEAKENING FAST...BARELY A HURRICANE...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA. IF LENNY CONTINUES WEAKENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SOME OF THESE ISLANDS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
OR DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE LENNY
HAS BECOME BROAD AND DIFFUSE AND IT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
BETWEEN ST. KITTS AND ANTIGUA.
LENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/HR LATER TODAY.
LENNY HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND HAS
WEAKENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR...OVER A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON TO DETERMINE THE
INTENSITY OF LENNY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.14 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 191451
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 11/19/99 TIME: 22:23:38
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 200246
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.1N 60.5W 44 X X X 44 TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99
18.0N 59.5W 18 4 2 1 25 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.0N 58.5W 3 12 3 3 21 TNCM 181N 631W 54 X X X 54
TBPB 131N 595W 4 3 1 X 8 TISX 177N 648W 2 3 1 1 7
TVSV 131N 612W 3 2 1 X 6 TIST 183N 650W 1 3 1 1 6
TLPL 138N 610W 9 2 1 X 12 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 1 1 3
TFFF 146N 610W 21 1 X X 22 ST CROIX VI 2 3 1 1 7
TDPR 153N 614W 41 1 X X 42 ST THOMAS VI 1 3 1 1 6
TFFR 163N 615W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR X 1 1 1 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY LINGERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS NEAR ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND STORM-FORCE
WINDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY. THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAS BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE. THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...SATURDAY.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 200231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 192351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY LINGERS OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...33 KM...NORTHWEST OF
ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...4 MPH...67 KM/HR...OR LESS...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LENNY. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N... 61.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 192025
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.0N 60.0W 32 1 X X 33 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.0N 59.0W 14 7 2 1 24 TNCM 181N 631W 99 X X X 99
20.0N 58.0W 2 12 4 3 21 TISX 177N 648W X 3 2 2 7
TBPB 131N 595W X 1 1 X 2 TIST 183N 650W X 2 3 2 7
TVSV 131N 612W 1 1 X X 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X 1 2 3
TLPL 138N 610W 4 1 1 X 6 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 2 2 4
TFFF 146N 610W 12 1 X 1 14 ST CROIX VI X 3 2 2 7
TDPR 153N 614W 24 X X X 24 ST THOMAS VI X 2 3 2 7
TFFR 163N 615W 45 X X X 45 SAN JUAN PR X X 2 2 4
TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99 PONCE PR X X 1 2 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 192019
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z FRI NOV 19 1999
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS. ALSO AT 5 PM
AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS.. 150E 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 62.2W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 192017
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...CAPRICIOUS LENNY RAPIDLY LOSING STRENGTH...MOVING
EASTWARD...WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS. ALSO AT 5 PM
AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT LENNY HAS
WEAKENED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BARBUDA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ANTIGUA REPORTED GUSTS TO 80 MPH...
128 KPH...EARLIER TODAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LENNY. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 191738
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY WEAKENING FAST...BARELY A HURRICANE...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS....
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA. IF LENNY CONTINUES WEAKENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SOME OF THESE ISLANDS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
OR DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE LENNY
HAS BECOME BROAD AND DIFFUSE AND IT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
BETWEEN ST. KITTS AND ANTIGUA.
LENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/HR LATER TODAY.
LENNY HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND HAS
WEAKENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR...OVER A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON TO DETERMINE THE
INTENSITY OF LENNY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.14 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 191451
TCMAT1
HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z FRI NOV 19 1999
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 90SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 62.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
*********************** 11-20-99 ********************************
DATE: 11/20/99 TIME: 10:01:51
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 201434
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.0N 57.5W 32 1 X X 33 TLPL 138N 610W 10 X X X 10
17.5N 56.0W 8 14 2 X 24 TFFF 146N 610W 24 X X X 24
20.0N 55.0W X 4 14 2 20 TDPR 153N 614W 27 X X X 27
TBPB 131N 595W 12 1 X X 13 TFFR 163N 615W 2 4 1 X 7
TVSV 131N 612W 3 1 X X 4 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 1 X 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 201431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 59.9W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.7N 58.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 201430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
A FEW RAINBANDS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 59.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 200835
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z SAT NOV 20 1999
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 60.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 60.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 61.2W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 60.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 200831
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.0N 58.6W 31 1 X X 32 TFFF 146N 610W 21 X X X 21
18.2N 57.6W 13 8 1 1 23 TDPR 153N 614W 36 X X X 36
20.0N 56.5W X 8 9 3 20 TFFR 163N 615W 99 X X X 99
TBPB 131N 595W 3 2 X X 5 TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99
TVSV 131N 612W 2 1 X X 3 TKPK 173N 627W 3 3 1 1 8
TLPL 138N 610W 9 X 1 X 10 TNCM 181N 631W X 3 2 1 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200830
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CLEARS THE CARIBBEAN...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BASED ON SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS... THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE DIMINISHING.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.9 N... 60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200547
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
30 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 10
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY. THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...HAS
BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE.
THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 200246
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON NOV 22 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.1N 60.5W 44 X X X 44 TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99
18.0N 59.5W 18 4 2 1 25 TKPK 173N 627W 99 X X X 99
19.0N 58.5W 3 12 3 3 21 TNCM 181N 631W 54 X X X 54
TBPB 131N 595W 4 3 1 X 8 TISX 177N 648W 2 3 1 1 7
TVSV 131N 612W 3 2 1 X 6 TIST 183N 650W 1 3 1 1 6
TLPL 138N 610W 9 2 1 X 12 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 1 1 3
TFFF 146N 610W 21 1 X X 22 ST CROIX VI 2 3 1 1 7
TDPR 153N 614W 41 1 X X 42 ST THOMAS VI 1 3 1 1 6
TFFR 163N 615W 99 X X X 99 SAN JUAN PR X 1 1 1 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
...LENNY LINGERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS NEAR ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND STORM-FORCE
WINDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY. THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAS BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE. THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...SATURDAY.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 200231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 60NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/20/99 TIME: 10:23:41
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 201434
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.0N 57.5W 32 1 X X 33 TLPL 138N 610W 10 X X X 10
17.5N 56.0W 8 14 2 X 24 TFFF 146N 610W 24 X X X 24
20.0N 55.0W X 4 14 2 20 TDPR 153N 614W 27 X X X 27
TBPB 131N 595W 12 1 X X 13 TFFR 163N 615W 2 4 1 X 7
TVSV 131N 612W 3 1 X X 4 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 1 X 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 201431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 59.9W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.7N 58.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.7W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 201430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
A FEW RAINBANDS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 59.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 200835
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z SAT NOV 20 1999
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 60.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 60.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 61.2W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 60.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 200831
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.0N 58.6W 31 1 X X 32 TFFF 146N 610W 21 X X X 21
18.2N 57.6W 13 8 1 1 23 TDPR 153N 614W 36 X X X 36
20.0N 56.5W X 8 9 3 20 TFFR 163N 615W 99 X X X 99
TBPB 131N 595W 3 2 X X 5 TAPA 171N 618W 99 X X X 99
TVSV 131N 612W 2 1 X X 3 TKPK 173N 627W 3 3 1 1 8
TLPL 138N 610W 9 X 1 X 10 TNCM 181N 631W X 3 2 1 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200830
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CLEARS THE CARIBBEAN...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BASED ON SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS... THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LENNY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE DIMINISHING.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.9 N... 60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 200547
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
30 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 10
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY. THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...HAS
BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE.
THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/20/99 TIME: 22:01:54
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 210224
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.6N 56.1W 30 1 X X 31 TLPL 138N 610W 3 1 X X 4
16.8N 54.8W 12 9 2 X 23 TFFF 146N 610W 8 X X X 8
18.3N 53.2W 1 7 9 3 20 TDPR 153N 614W X 1 1 X 2
TBPB 131N 595W 23 X X X 23 TFFR 163N 615W X 1 X 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 210222
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N... 58.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST...SUNDAY.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 210216
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 58.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 58.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.1N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 54.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 58.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 53.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 202030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 59.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 59.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 202030
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.0N 57.0W 32 X 1 X 33 TFFF 146N 610W 15 X X X 15
17.5N 56.0W 11 11 1 1 24 TDPR 153N 614W 2 2 1 X 5
19.5N 54.5W X 7 11 2 20 TFFR 163N 615W X 3 2 X 5
TBPB 131N 595W 15 1 X X 16 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 2 1 5
TVSV 131N 612W 2 X X X 2 TKPK 173N 627W X X 2 X 2
TLPL 138N 610W 9 X 1 X 10 TNCM 181N 631W X X 1 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 202029
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY REFUSES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES AT ABOUT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.6 N... 59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/20/99 TIME: 22:23:45
National Weather Service
WTNT71 KNHC 210224
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
15.6N 56.1W 30 1 X X 31 TLPL 138N 610W 3 1 X X 4
16.8N 54.8W 12 9 2 X 23 TFFF 146N 610W 8 X X X 8
18.3N 53.2W 1 7 9 3 20 TDPR 153N 614W X 1 1 X 2
TBPB 131N 595W 23 X X X 23 TFFR 163N 615W X 1 X 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
LAWRENCE
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 210222
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N... 58.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST...SUNDAY.
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 210216
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0300Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 58.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 58.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.1N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 25SW 50NW
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 54.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 58.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 53.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 202030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z SAT NOV 20 1999
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 59.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 59.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 59.3W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 202030
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE NOV 23 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.0N 57.0W 32 X 1 X 33 TFFF 146N 610W 15 X X X 15
17.5N 56.0W 11 11 1 1 24 TDPR 153N 614W 2 2 1 X 5
19.5N 54.5W X 7 11 2 20 TFFR 163N 615W X 3 2 X 5
TBPB 131N 595W 15 1 X X 16 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 2 1 5
TVSV 131N 612W 2 X X X 2 TKPK 173N 627W X X 2 X 2
TLPL 138N 610W 9 X 1 X 10 TNCM 181N 631W X X 1 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
AVILA
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 202029
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT NOV 20 1999
...LENNY REFUSES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES AT ABOUT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.6 N... 59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
********************** 11-21-99 ********************************
DATE: 11/21/99 TIME: 10:01:56
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 211431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 53.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 51.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 47.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 211430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOON...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 56.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 210833
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED NOV 24 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.7N 55.2W 36 X X X 36 21.5N 52.0W 1 13 3 3 20
20.2N 53.7W 14 9 1 1 25
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY TURNS EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 57.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 210831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 57.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 57.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.7N 55.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 53.7W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 57.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 52.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/21/99 TIME: 10:23:48
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 211431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
1500Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 53.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 51.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.6W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 47.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 211430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOON...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 56.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT71 KNHC 210833
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED NOV 24 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.7N 55.2W 36 X X X 36 21.5N 52.0W 1 13 3 3 20
20.2N 53.7W 14 9 1 1 25
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FRANKLIN
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY TURNS EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 57.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT21 KNHC 210831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
0900Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 57.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 57.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.7N 55.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 53.7W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 57.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 52.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/21/99 TIME: 22:01:58
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 212039
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 52.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 56.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 212038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY WEAKENING...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.61 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
DATE: 11/21/99 TIME: 22:24:39
National Weather Service
WTNT21 KNHC 212039
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z SUN NOV 21 1999
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 52.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 56.1W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
_________________________________________________________________
WTNT31 KNHC 212038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN NOV 21 1999
...LENNY WEAKENING...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.61 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
AVILA
NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.
© 1999 FIU High Performance Database Research Center